A hand holding a payment (Image: Thinkstock)
The nation’s largest payments CUSO reported gains in credit and debit card spending in March, which it said might reflect consumers trying to stock up as they anticipate tariffs driving up prices in the coming months.
“While the impact of tariffs is not yet reflected in our March data, it is certainly weighing on consumers’ minds and beginning to influence spending behavior,” Velera of St. Petersburg, Fla., reported. “Early signs suggest that American consumers may be stockpiling essential imported goods in anticipation of price increases.”
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Census reported retail spending, excluding automobiles and parts, rose 2.8% in March from a year earlier. The Velera Payments Index released April 17 reported overall spending rose 2.0% by credit and rose 4.0% by debit.
Key category comparisons included:
- Retail spending, excluding automobiles and parts, which Census reported rose 2.8% in March from a year earlier — slightly higher than the 2.4% gain in the Consumer Price Index over the 12 months ending in March. At Velera, spending rose 2% by credit and rose 4% by debit.
- Grocery store spending, which Census reported grew 1% in March from a year earlier. At Velera, spending fell 0.4% by credit and fell 5% by debit, “reflecting slowing inflation for food consumed at home.”
- Spending at restaurants and bars, which Census reported rose 4.2% in March from a year earlier. At Velera, spending rose 2% by credit and rose 4% by debit, with most of the increase coming from fast food.
- Gasoline spending, which Census reported fell 4.5% in March from a year earlier. At Velera, spending fell 8% by credit and fell 4% by debit. “Gasoline prices have been falling year over year for the past few months,” the report said. The national average price per gallon was $3.24 for the week ending April 14, down 12.7% or 46 cents year over year.
Among Velera’s pool of members, 2.31% of credit card balances were at least 60 days late as of March 31, down from 2.49% in February and 2.42% in March 2024. It was up from the pre-pandemic rate of 1.93% in March 2019.
Delinquency rates peaked at 2.67% in January 2024, and the rate has been ebbing this year. “The monthly overall delinquency rate this year appears to be in line with historical first-quarter trends, as slower consumer spending following the holidays and the receipt of tax refunds typically drive decreases in delinquencies,” the report said.
The average credit card balance for March was $2,951, down $8 from February and up 1.45%, or $42, from a year earlier.
Velera’s total balance fell 1.3% in the three months ending March 31, much swifter than the 0.5% drop in 2024’s first quarter. The total balance in March was 2.8% lower than a year earlier.
March has remained the peak month for balance transfers, but their use has been falling over the past two years.
March had 1% fewer balance consolidation transactions from a year earlier, despite credit unions sending out about the same number of offers. For those that used balance transfers in March, the average amount was $4,351, up 3% from 2024.
Higher interest rates might be one reason discouraging members from using balance transfer offers. “Additionally, members may be reluctant to incur more debt, which could exacerbate already high credit card utilization rates and negatively impact credit scores,” the report said.
Velera bases its Payments Index on data from credit unions that have been processing payments with it since January 2023. This month’s report encompassed 3.5 billion transactions valued at $174 billion of credit and debit card activity in the 12 months ending March 31.
Velera began the reports five years ago this month to track the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It announced this month that future index numbers will be released quarterly, with “Deep Dive” reports being issued in the other two months of each quarter.
Contact Jim DuPlessis at [email protected].
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