However, the report said the job outlook for financial institutions was worse for 2025.

“A key factor that could deepen job cuts among banks is the tariff turmoil that has slammed financial markets and could force banks to revise their economic growth forecasts,” the KBRA report said.

The KBRA analysts noted that Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their probability of a recession to 45%, up from just 35% a week earlier.

“If banks are rapidly adjusting their expectations for growth in the year ahead, it is possible that their hiring plans could also be disrupted,” KBRA said.

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday morning released a redacted version of the 19-page report dated Sunday that forecast GDP in the fourth quarter will be 1% lower than 2024’s fourth quarter, and average growth for 2025 will be 0.7%.

It forecast flat business investment this year and said slowing consumer spending “is inevitable” as job growth slows alongside it, and tariffs reduce real disposable income.

Goldman Sachs said the chances of things getting worse have risen because of “the combination of larger tariffs, greater policy uncertainty, declining business and consumer confidence, and messaging from the administration indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of its policies.”

Goldman raised its recession risk to 65% before lunch Wednesday, but at 2:07 p.m. Goldman Sachs pulled back its forecasts, saying recession chances this year were now back to 45% and the year’s GDP growth was now expected to be 0.5%, a rate lower than in its April 6 report.

Others sounding alarms in the before-lunch times included:

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who wrote in his annual letter to shareholders released Monday that Trump’s tariffs “will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession.” On Tuesday he told Fox News he expected a recession and higher loan defaults as the result of the tariffs.
• An April 3 report from the outplacement and consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which found companies’ hiring plans fell from 34,580 in February to 13,198 in March. In the first quarter, companies planned to hire 53,867 workers, down 16% from a year earlier. “It is the lowest Q1 hiring total since 2012 when 52,540 new hiring plans were announced.”
• A report Monday from Morningstar, which said the chances have risen for higher inflation and the “recession risk has vaulted, standing at perhaps 40%-50% over the next 12 months. But a recession can be purely short-run pain. If the tariffs hikes are maintained, they will permanently reduce US real GDP and hence real living standards for the average American.”

Contact Jim DuPlessis at [email protected].