Credit cards

Payments CUSO Velera reported credit union member spending softened in February as consumer sentiment fell, and forecast a rise in credit card delinquencies this year.

“Amidst an increasingly volatile political climate, consumer sentiment began waning in February on concerns of anticipated inflation increases, with impacts seen across all income levels within the U.S. economy,” according to the Velera Payments Index released Monday. “While growth in purchasing activity remained positive, February year-over-year results softened for both credit and debit activity.”

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Census reported retail spending, excluding automobiles and parts, fell 0.9% in February from a year earlier without adjustments and rose 3.1% after seasonal adjustments.

Usually Velera does not report any adjustments to its figures, but it said it adjusted February 2024 because it was a leap year, which means the adjustments would improve year-ago comparisons. So comparisons between Census data and Velera will be a bit squishier for February.

At Velera, overall spending rose 0.5% by credit and rose 5.7% by debit.

  • Grocery store spending rose an unadjusted 0.5% in February from a year earlier, and rose 4.3% after seasonal adjustments, Census reported. At Velera, spending rose 2% by credit and fell 1% by debit.
  • Gasoline spending fell an unadjusted 4.4% and fell an adjusted 0.3% in February from a year earlier, Census reported. At Velera, spending fell -3% by credit and fell -1% by debit.
  • Spending at restaurants and bars fell an unadjusted 2.3% and rose an adjusted 1.5% in February from a year earlier, Census reported. At Velera, spending fell 1% by credit and rose 2% by debit.
Among Velera’s pool of members, 2.49% of credit card balances were at least 60 days late in February, down from 2.55% in January and 2.60% in February 2024 — improvements that the report said were “reflective of generally stable delinquency rates observed for the last 13 months.”

The delinquency rate rose from a pre-pandemic 1.56% in February 2019 to 2.01% by February 2023.

David Knowles, Velera’s SVP of collections and disputes, said serious delinquency rates are projected to reach 2.76% by the end of 2025, driven by inflation, interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty.

Buy Now, Pay Later services are also contributing to delinquencies, particularly among the young, Knowles said. “By offering financial education, flexible repayment options and early intervention strategies, credit unions can help members manage debt responsibly and avoid deeper financial distress.”

Velera’s average credit card balance was $2,959 in February, down $48 (-1.65%) from a year earlier and down $1 from January.

Its total credit card balance on Feb. 28 was up 3.1% from a year earlier and down 1.2% from January.

Contact Jim DuPlessis at [email protected].

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Jim DuPlessis

Jim covers economic data trends emerging for credit unions, as well as branch news and dividends.