Credit unions originated $32.4 billion in residential first mortgages in the fourth quarter, up 41% from a year earlier and up 8.1% from the third quarter.

By comparison, MBA’s Feb. 19 forecast found first-mortgage originations were $494 billion in the fourth quarter, up 39% from a year earlier and up 3.1% from the third quarter.

MBA forecasts first-mortgage originations will rise 15.5% to $2.05 trillion in 2025 as purchases rise 10% to $1.42 trillion and refinances rise 30% to $638 billion.

For all commercial loans, NCUA data showed credit unions produced $12 billion in the fourth quarter, up 36% from a year earlier and up 24% from the third quarter.

Most of that was $10.3 billion in commercial loans backed by real estate, which up 38% from a year earlier and up 25% from the third quarter.

MBA’s quarterly survey of multifamily and other commercial real estate lending found the value of originations for the three months ending Dec. 31 was 84% higher than 2023’s fourth quarter and 30% higher than 2024’s third quarter.

MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said production in 2024, including the especially strong fourth-quarter finish, was “a welcome rebound for the industry following a slow pace of origination activity in 2023.”

“The significant, but brief, dip in interest rates in September, followed by a pickup in market sentiment post-election, resulted in more business, with origination activity back to 2022 levels,” Fratantoni said. “The triple-digit percentage increases in the origination indexes certainly reflect this bounce off a low base.”

“With interest rates moving up again to start 2025, we will have to see how origination activity responds through the first quarter. However, MBA still expects more borrowing and lending in 2025,” he said.

Credit unions performed better than other lenders for multifamily loans.
Credit unions produced $2.2 billion in multifamily loans in the fourth quarter, up 46% from a year earlier and up 22% from the third quarter. MBA found multifamily loan originations in the fourth quarter rose 27% from a year earlier and rose 22% from the third quarter.

NCUA data from Callahan’s Peer Suite also showed:

• Originations of home equity lines of credit and other second liens on homes were $15.7 billion in the fourth quarter and up/down 6.3% from a year earlier, and up/down -10.7% from the third quarter.
• Originations of loans for cars, credit cards and other personal loans were $80.2 billion in the fourth quarter, up 2% from a year earlier, and up 1.3% from the third quarter.
• For the year, total credit union originations fell 4% to $528 billion.