“The U.S. economy has been surprisingly strong the last few years despite high inflation and corresponding rate increases. It’s no surprise that 2024 holiday spending is on pace to break records as inflation has cooled and consumer sentiment improves,” Ryan Myers, an Advisors Plus SVP at Velera, said.

But Thanksgiving came late — Nov. 28, assigning record Cyber Monday sales to December. That was one reason Velera cited for a mixed result for the full month of November as spending fell 2.1% by credit and rose 6.2% by debit. This followed spending in October that rose 0.7% by credit and 5.7% by debit.

“However, any appearance of softening in growth will likely be picked up in December,” the report said.

Spending on goods was weaker than overall spending.

Spending on goods from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday was up 2.6% by credit and up 11% by debit.

For the cumulative holiday shopping season so far (October and November), goods spending fell 3.5% by credit card, compared to a 1.6% drop for October-December 2022 to October-December 2023. October-December 2024 debit purchases of goods sector were up 2.5% from a year earlier, compared with a 2.7% gain a year ago.

The total balance of credit cards handled by Velera ended November 1.9% higher than a year earlier. The average credit card balance finished November at $2,964, up 2.1% from a year earlier and relatively unchanged from October.

Over the past two months, Velera’s credit card delinquency rate has remained fairly stable, increasing just two basis points from the prior month to 2.63% for November. “Though the delinquency rate typically peaks in December, the percentage of balances delinquent was 17 basis points higher compared to one year ago and 66 basis points higher than November 2019,” the report said.

Velera cited data from the Fed that showed the national credit card delinquency rate in September surpassed 4%, its highest level since 2010, surpassing 4%.

However, Velera’s rate is higher than the average for all credit unions, which was 2.15% as of Sept. 30, according to NCUA data pulled from Callahan’s Peer Suite.

The average credit card balance was $3,159 on Sept. 30 for credit unions, up 5%.

Velera’s 12-month spending changes of a 2.1% drop by credit and a 6.2% gain by debit bracketed the 3.3% gain in retail spending reported by the U.S. Census Bureau for November and the 2.7% inflation rate. Other key comparisons showed:

• Grocery store spending rose 2.7% in November from a year earlier, matching the 12-month inflation rate. At Velera, spending rose 2% by credit and rose 4% by debit.
• Gasoline spending fell 4.3% in November from a year earlier, Census reported. At Velera, spending fell 8% by credit and fell 3% by debit. The average price of gasoline was $3.02 per gallon for the week ending Dec. 16, down 1.2% from a year earlier.
• Spending at restaurants and bars rose 4.7% in November from a year earlier, Census reported. At Velera, spending rose 5% by credit and rose 8% by debit, some of the biggest gains by category for the CUSO.

Contact Jim DuPlessis at [email protected].