Mergers & Acquisitions: Key Industry Trends to Watch
More conversations around mergers and an increased pace of M&A activity is expected in late 2024 or early 2025.
The volume of merger and acquisition activity has been relatively flat in 2023, but that could soon change. Through the first half of the year, 74 credit union transactions and 61 bank deals were announced. If those levels continue for the remainder of 2023, we’ll be looking at approximately 150 credit union M&A transactions and 120 bank deals on an annualized basis. The double bar chart illustrates a snapshot of overall industry consolidation through mid-year 2023.
Conversations Continue, Timeline Expands
There are several trends keeping some financial institutions in the exploratory stage for now. However, conversations are happening across the industry even if immediate action isn’t always taken. What’s driving this measured approach to mergers? Uncertainty in the economic and regulatory environment, more competition from non-traditional financial services providers, as well as the increasing size and complexity of transactions are causing some boards and executives to proceed with caution. In addition, mergers take time, particularly in the credit union industry, as trust and rapport are built through both initial conversations and ongoing discussions.
More in-depth regulatory reviews have become common, extending the timeline for planned mergers. In the past, the NCUA’s Merger Packet Checklist was seen as a comprehensive guide to prepare merger documentation for the application and approval process. Now, the checklist often represents the beginning of the process with a deeper dive and follow-up documentation requested prior to approval. Furthermore, if there was an issue or Document of Resolution noted during your last exam, addressing these items will be necessary.
Based on what we’re seeing currently, we’re advising clients to plan for an average of 12-18 months to complete a deal from start to finish with regulatory approval taking between 75-120 days, or even longer, compared with the 45-60 days we saw historically.
Charter changes are also increasingly up for discussion, with credit union leaders and their boards reviewing the pros and cons of their current charter and potentially taking the opportunity to convert. Mergers of distance, often across state lines to expand and diversify geographic footprint, are becoming more common. Depending on each institution’s charter, these transactions could involve multiple regulatory bodies. The same is true of bank purchases.
Beyond the regulatory process, other factors impacting credit unions’ M&A strategy include the unique macro environment we’re in, the need to invest in technology and succession planning. Even for large credit unions, replacing a CEO who retires has become an increasingly costly and time-consuming endeavor. This competition for talent drives some to consider mergers. So does the need for scale to invest in technology, which is why we’re seeing more mergers of equals than in the past.
Credit unions that are well-run and have already achieved significant size are more open to exploring mergers with other cooperatives like themselves than they’ve been in the past, as they search for new ways to enhance or maintain revenue through new lines of business and new geographic markets. Historically, the sweet spot for a merger was a credit union generally in the range of less than $300 million in assets, but we have seen this asset size increase to include multi-billion credit unions exploring partnerships with other multi-billion credit unions. While the largest percentage of targets will remain in the less than $100 million category as they comprise about 65% of all credit unions, it is likely we’ll see an uptick in M&A activity in the $250 million to $2 billion range as well.
More M&A Activity on the Horizon?
We expect the factors detailed above to continue driving more conversations and an increased pace of M&A activity in late 2024 or early 2025. In fact, the five-year period from 2025 to 2030 could see a record number of collaborations. ALM First is forecasting that there will be 3,000 or fewer credit unions by the end of 2030 compared with approximately 4,700 that exist today. That would translate into between 240 and 260 mergers per year. When you take the 2,300 credit unions under $50 million in assets into account, that figure, while staggering, also seems likely based on past trends, which included higher merger rates for smaller institutions.
As the set of four bar charts demonstrate here, several factors in today’s landscape are driving credit unions with less than $100 million in assets to merge. In less than a decade, the number of cooperatives under $50 million has been reduced by nearly half (47%). In that same period, the total asset share of credit unions in the under-$50 million and under-$100 million categories shrunk significantly from 11% of all industry assets down to just 4% combined.
While there is always debate regarding the best way for cooperatives to serve their members, the consolidation trends, along with the various pressures driving them, are clear. As credit union leaders continue to focus on a future of sustainable growth, it’s important to begin any merger discussion with your key stakeholders in mind. We recommend beginning with simple questions, such as: How will this benefit the members of each organization? How will this benefit each institution’s staff? How will this benefit the communities we serve?
When pursued as a strategic opportunity to benefit your membership and other key stakeholders, mergers can create new value, scale and the sustainable growth required for cooperatives to thrive, often within less time than it would take organically.
Brandon Pelletier (left) and David Ritter Managing Directors, M&A Advisory ALM First Dallas, Texas