The Mortgage Bankers Association cut its forecasts for 2022 originations for the third month in a row, including an 11% cut in its expectations for refinances.

The latest forecast released Monday was dated June 10, the same day the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics reported record inflation for May.

The MBA forecast revisions preceded other developments affecting the mortgage market:

• On Thursday, the U.S. Census Bureau reported builders started construction on privately owned houses at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 million, down 14.4% from April.
• On Wednesday, the Fed increased the federal funds rate by 75 basis points — its biggest increase since 1994. It also said it would continue selling off mortgage-backed securities, which the MBA said would be another force pushing mortgage interest rates up.
• On Wednesday, the MBA reported that mortgage applications for the week ending June 10 were 6.6% greater than the previous week. This followed three weeks of declines.

Joel Kan, the MBA's assistant vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said refinances for the week ending June 10 were 4% higher than the previous week, but down 76% from a year earlier. Seasonally adjusted purchase applications rose 8% from the previous week, but were down 16% from a year ago.