Is it Time to Retire Yearly Predictions & Resolutions?
The traditions of making annual predictions and New Year's resolutions are beginning to appear outdated and tone deaf.
He typically begins a podcast by sharing that each morning, he wakes up and tries scraping a tiny bit of mud off of his mud-encrusted crystal ball. When the Omicron variant emerged, he said someone had taken his mud-encrusted crystal ball and baked it in the oven for an hour at 350°.
This seems like a pretty accurate way to view the nature of making predictions – whether about COVID, the economy or even the future of the financial services industry – these days. And if that’s true, and the crystal balls we once relied on for an even fuzzy glimpse into the future are now useless, maybe it’s time to put predictions on pause and instead focus on planning for various possible outcomes, from decent to worst.
Making predictions is one of those things that is starting to come off as tone deaf in this pandemic era, kind of like making New Year’s resolutions, which are starting to be seen by some as an absurd tradition. Many people fell into traps with resolutions pre-pandemic by, for example, setting an unrealistic weight loss goal and showing up to the gym on Jan. 1 only to quit a week later, but these days, everything from our health to our travel plans and careers are so uncertain that we can’t count on making a particular thing happen. Instead, we have to experience each year as it happens.
Leaders within the credit union industry – typically economists, CEOs and technology organization leaders – love making predictions and often share their latest with CU Times during each holiday season for the upcoming year. This past season, we received fewer prediction story pitches than usual, and those we did get were almost exclusively in the tech space (and to be fair, with the planning of in-person activities in flux, technology is one area of life and business that will be an ongoing need). Here are a few tech-related predictions that came across our desks and may be the exceptions to the emerging “predictions are useless” rule:
- In a December webinar, presenters from fintech organizations MX, Finn AI and Q2 predicted that open banking will continue to accelerate in 2022 as younger people become more willing to share their data in exchange for personalized experiences, ease and convenience. In addition, they said that as impacts of the pandemic recede, consumers’ increased use of digital channels will not.
- Credit unions will further explore potential ways to incorporate cryptocurrency into their strategies, according to several organizations including NCR’s Banking arm and the CUSO Member Driven Technologies. They forecast that credit unions will expand member access to crypto payments and investment opportunities to gain a competitive advantage. But as they do so, they’ll have to be on the lookout for fraud – digital banking security company OneSpan predicted cryptocurrency fraud will skyrocket in 2022.
- Numerous organizations predicted increasing adoption of AI-powered tools among credit unions in an effort to provide better member service. Many of these predictions have been woven into this month’s Focus Report on AI’s Growing Impact. In addition, OneSpan asserted that policies and legislation pertaining to the use of AI will top regulatory agendas this year.
As for my own predictions for the industry in 2022, one I have in mind is that credit unions, like many businesses and organizations, will struggle to balance maintaining normal operations with keeping employees and members safe from COVID. Unfortunately, it seems that achieving both of those goals at the same time is impossible. Some businesses that have remained open during the Omicron surge, including credit union branches, are being forced to close anyway when staff members fall ill. And on the conference front, numerous in-person industry events are scheduled to take place beginning next month. Cancelling these comes at a cost for everyone involved, but if they move forward, more people will get sick, leading to other business disruptions when attendees return home. So, should credit union professionals keep branches open and attend conferences this year in an attempt to maintain “normalcy,” despite the domino effect of problems the resulting spread of illness will bring? This dilemma is certain to be a source of stress and difficult decision-making for industry leaders for some time.
There are two other things I see happening – or rather continuing – in 2022. The first is showing concern for members in the way of reducing or eliminating overdraft and non-sufficient funds fees. Nearly a dozen credit unions have announced they recently made this move, and with the benefits to members outweighing any financial losses resulting from the decision, it’s likely that more and more credit unions will follow suit.
The second is showing concern for community. During the pandemic, credit unions have stepped up in creative ways for individuals and groups in their communities, targeting their time and donations where needs have been the greatest. The number of philanthropic activities reported during this past credit union holiday giving season was bigger than we’ve ever seen, making it very difficult to choose just a few to include in this month’s Community News column. I expect credit unions to continue solidifying their roles as their communities’ biggest supporters this year.
The tradition of making annual predictions may not go away, but for now, they need to be reserved for areas that have seen some steadiness and reliability these past two years, like technology. And as for resolutions, setting small, controllable goals that can be worked toward on a day to day basis and don’t rely on external factors falling into place (like getting outside for a walk every day or limiting your doom-and-gloom news intake) are likely to have the best success rate.
Natasha Chilingerian is executive editor for CU Times. She can be reached at nchilingerian@cutimes.com.