TransUnion Forecasts Slow Growth in Consumer Credit in 2022

TransUnion said it expects lenders to originate a few more consumer loans in 2022 than they will originate this year.

A report from the Chicago credit rating agency Wednesday said it expects lenders to originate 116.7 million loans for automobiles, credit cards and personal loans in 2022, only 0.6% more than this year.

For 2021, it said it expects 116 million total originations, up 25% from 2020 and nearly the 116.5 million originations of 2019.

The biggest gains are expected in personal loans, TransUnion said. It expects originations this year to rise 26% to 17.9 million loans, which is still less than 2019’s 18.5 million originations. Next year it expects a 12% gain.

Sub-prime personal loans (sub prime and near prime) are expected to be 68% of the 20 million originations expected in 2022, about the same share of the 17.9 million originations in 2021.

Liz Pagel, SVP and consumer lending business leader at TransUnion, said the increase is tied to an expected rise in consumer spending. Eventually, it also will be boosted when credit card balances grow and consumers turn to personal loans for debt consolidation.

“During the onset of the pandemic in 2020 many personal loan lenders pulled back dramatically on originations,” Pagel said. “This market took time to recover through early 2021 as consumers were flush with cash after stimulus checks and lower spending.”

Auto loans are expected to be up slightly, while credit cards will fall next year.

TransUnion forecast 28.3 million auto loan originations this year, up 5.6% from 2020, but not quite the 20.4 million of 2019. Next year it expects the number to rise 2.1% to 28.9 million.

Satyan Merchant, SVP and auto business leader at TransUnion, said auto originations will be constrained by tight inventory.

“However consumer demand for vehicles has not waned, and as we see inventory increase, this will likely influence origination growth,” Merchant said.

“Lenders are also eager to return to lending and will expand into the non-prime segment of the market to meet consumer demand — especially as consumer performance has remained strong,” he said.

Sub-prime borrowers will account for 35% of new auto loans next year, up from 33% this year.

For credit cards, TransUnion forecast 69.8 million cards will be issued this year, up 35% from 2020 and slightly better than the 69.3 million cards issued in 2019. However, next year it expects originations will drop 2.9%.

The share of sub-prime borrowers will fall slightly from 42% of new credit cards this year to 41% next year, but it will remain above the pre-pandemic share of 38% in 2019.

The Fed’s G-19 Consumer Credit Report showed credit card balances for all lenders was an unadjusted $980.6 billion in October, up 4.1% from a year earlier, but still 6.6% below February 2020. Credit unions held $62.3 billion in credit card balances on Oct. 31, up 2.1% from a year earlier but down 4.6% from February 2020.

Paul Siegfried, a SVP and credit card business leader at TransUnion, said credit card balances will rise 3% next year, but still not quite reach pre-pandemic levels.

“It is anticipated that balances will rise above pre-pandemic levels when there is a more significant return to bigger card-focused purchases such as international travel and/or entertainment expenses,” Siegfried said. “International travel will especially help contribute to a significant increase to card balances.”

As more consumers apply for credit and increase their spending, delinquencies are expected to tick up to 1.74% by year end, while still remaining at a healthy level and below pre-pandemic rates.