TransUnion Predicts 'Return to Credit'

Consumers were carrying the lowest credit card balances in March ever recorded by TransUnion, but it expects balances will begin rising this year as consumers become more confident in the economic recovery, according to a report released Wednesday by the Chicago credit reporting and analytics company.

Consumer borrowing via credit cards, unsecured personal loans and automobiles fell precipitously after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March 2020.

Matt Komos, TransUnion’s head of research and consulting in the U.S., said automobile lending has begun recovering, hindered more by supply than demand. Credit cards and personal loans are still low, but credit inquiries and economic indicators are signaling a stronger spending in the months ahead.

“We’re anticipating there’s going to be that return to credit,” Komos said. “We’re still in a very low-rate environment, so consumers are incentivized to use debt.”

At the same time, delinquencies have remained surprisingly low, and TransUnion is becoming more confident that credit quality will remain high even after lender accommodations fall away.

“There is room to grow for lenders,” Komos said. “We’re seeing good performance. That should give confidence to lenders that it’s a good time to get back into the marketplace.”

Komos said consumers will begin spending more heavily on big-ticket items from vacations to home improvements. People will be eating out more, traveling more and letting their credit card balances rise.

“Those are the kind of things we expect to see coming back as the economy reopens. Lenders are getting more comfortable with the direction the economy is going, and consumers have the capacity and ability to take on additional debt, if they have that interest and need.”

TransUnion’s “Industry Insights Report” for the first quarter showed consumers held an average credit card balance of $4,791, down from $5,653 in March 2020 and the lowest level since TransUnion first began measuring it in 2009.

“We’re not sure if it’s bottomed out,” Komos said.

PSCU, a St. Petersburg, Fla.-based payments CUSO, reported Tuesday that its members held an average of about $2,610 on their credit cards as of April 30, down slightly from March and down sharply over the past two years. Balances were about $2,900 in April 2020 and $3,050 in April 2019.

“Credit card balances (for our same-store population) have been declining since July 2019, impacted by two key factors: Lower sales volume, which has been negative for many months, and higher payment volume, enabled in part by the three federal stimulus payments,” according to the PSCU report.

TransUnion found balances for unsecured personal loans stood at $8,999 in March, down only slightly from a year earlier. Further growth will depend on higher credit card balances, which often lead consumers to take out personal loans to consolidate their debt at a lower interest rate.

“That’s been the challenge,” Komos said. “Since consumers haven’t been building card balances, it doesn’t become appealing for debt consolidation because you’re paying off your balances.”

Lenders sharply lowered credit card limits when the pandemic began. However, lenders are beginning to consider offering more cards to higher risk groups and raising limits for current card holders.

“There’s going to be a shift in opening up those lines again, and potentially looking for new consumers,” he said. “They want to make sure the employment picture continues to brighten.”

Meanwhile, mortgages had strong increases in the past year, and automobile lending has begun recovering in recent months. The average mortgage debt was $296,505 in March, up 3.3% from a year earlier, while the average auto loan balance was $20,001 in March, up 3.6%.

Supply shortages in new cars have bumped up prices and led to shortages for used cars.

“For the consumer, it becomes a question of affordability: What kind of car can I afford?”

For lenders, it’s a question of recalculating loan-to-value and interest rate policies for residual values that might be inflated and at risk of falling precipitously.

“It’s almost an anomaly,” Komos said. “Many lenders will have to make an adjustment when they’re considering the residual value.”