Economic predictions are bets on a desired or hopeful landscape of social, political and weather outcomes.

CU Times has been tied very closely to the economists at CUNA, CUNA Mutual Group, the Mortgage Bankers Association, TransUnion and other organizations, especially since late January and February as the pandemic came into view for many of us.

In the most recent "Credit Union Trends" report from CUNA Mutual Group's Chief Economist Steve Rick, he said, "The probability of a double-dip recession this winter is rising as the number of daily new COVID-19 cases rises."

And according to our lending reporter, Jim DuPlessis, and his recent interview with CUNA Chief Economist Mike Schenk, the economic prediction variables have basically remained the same since February, but those variables have taken on a much more sinister tone. "Big spikes in bankruptcies and charge-offs may occur in the current environment if we don't see a significant additional fiscal stimulus in the near term," Schenk said. "Who knows when help is on the way and how much."

In mid-February, when the pandemic predictors became clear, CUNA and CUNA Mutual Group economists met together to regroup and reforecast because forecasts made in January and even early February weren't holding true. Even then, it was hard to say what was going on or what was going to happen.

"Assuming the coronavirus peaks in the second quarter and the U.S. gradually resumes economic activity shortly thereafter, economic growth should bounce back slightly in the third and fourth quarters," the group's report said in April. At the time they weren't far off in the bounce back of the third quarter. That bounce didn't come from getting the pandemic under control. It came from states opening up despite the pandemic. So the math for predicting what economically was ahead of us became even more difficult. What is for sure now is that we are in for a rough fourth quarter and 2021.

I'm not faulting Steve or Mike or anyone else in their positions. This was and continues to be not just a political or weather-related issue – it's become more of a politicized social issue that has split the country basically in half. No one is able to lay out a proper economic projection in this environment. Even our country's top economic expert has backed off from trying to predict much of anything anymore.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held a webcast discussion with a number of European economic experts. Powell was attempting to be cautious about the news of a vaccine and what that could mean for the economy. "From our standpoint, it's just too soon to assess with any confidence the implications of the news for the path of the economy, especially in the near term," he said.

The two main things we need to have happen to get this country back on a predictable and stable path are: A massive, new economic stimulus passed by Congress and for all of us to wear a mask.

Even Schenk said last week that we did better than expected so far this year because Congress passed The CARES Act. "It's amazing when you throw $3 trillion at a problem the effects it will have." Because those effects allowed people to keep up-to-date on their bills and loan payments. Those positive economic effects ended in July. The predictions by economists are getting harder and harder to see as we continue to do nothing about helping the nation and believing people will do the right thing about the pandemic. What we've learned is that Congress is more interested in their political future and not ours. And our population as a whole absolutely won't do the right things to stop the spread of this catastrophic virus.

Mashed Poquesos?

On an entirely different note, because 1) I don't want to be a downer with economic blabbering and 2) It's Thanksgiving time and everyone likes food. So, let's talk about mashed potatoes.

Of the number of recent calls I've had lately with my boss, my team and other credit union officials around the country, we've all talked about Thanksgiving food at some point during the meetings. As you've probably experienced, talk about Thanksgiving has a completely different vibe this year. ThanksCOVID should possibly be what we call it and should be said sarcastically – ThanksCOVID.

Since most of us are hopefully going to stay in our own homes and not have big gatherings with family and friends, and are going to respect the pandemic and how rampant it has spread and is killing people, here's something a little experimental to try out this year. Because really, why not try out something new since your in-laws won't be at Thanksgiving this year to judge you?

Here's my recipe for "Mashed Potatoes With Roasted Poblanos and Queso."

• 3 Poblano peppers
• 2 ½ pounds Yukon Gold potatoes
• Half-and-half
• Butter
• Salt
• Pepper
• Container of queso

Preheat oven to 450, place cleaned poblanos on a baking sheet and roast until skin is blistered. Peel blistered skin from the peppers, remove stems and seeds, and dice peppers into ¼ inch pieces. Place in bowl and set aside.

Bring pot with a tablespoon of salt and four quarts of water to boil, add potatoes and cook until fork-tender.

Drain potatoes and add to mixing bowl. Flop in as much butter as you'd like because butter is great and add a bit more salt. Using a standing mixer with the paddle attachment, slowly mix everything until it's incorporated. Add half-and-half (as much as you'd like without making it runny) and mix until it's the consistency you like. Add poblano peppers and mix until incorporated. Finally, scoop in a container of good queso and mix again. Taste and add pepper or salt if needed. Get a bowl and scoop in a serving just for you to eat because you made it. Eventually let others know it's ready to eat and enjoy. Also, it's great to dip with some tortilla chips, french fries or onion rings.

I hope all of you have a safe holiday without having any gatherings with people other than those living in your house. I know this all is weird and stinks and we hate it. We need to get through this disastrous time with queso and without getting more people sick. Be well and as thankful as you can.

ThanksCOVID.

Michael Ogden

Michael Ogden is editor-in-chief for CU Times. He can be reached at [email protected].