Laughing at the Absurdity of Past Predictions

Like many of you, I’ve had a lot of extra time on my hands lately to look back on mementos and projects of the past, and one relic I recently stumbled upon was my first-ever CU Times editor’s column from July 2016, which attempted to answer the question, “What will credit unions look like in 2025?” Using predictions from experts coupled with my own conclusions based on several years of working in the industry, the column discussed what might be necessary for credit unions to survive and thrive a decade down the road.

It’s never a good idea to rely totally on an expert’s predictions, no matter how qualified they may be, but considering how drastically and unexpectedly our lives changed in 2020, many predictions made before this year actually have a high likelihood of being not just incorrect, but laughable.

Reading through my rookie editor’s column, I noticed I did get one prediction right – an increasing need for digital banking tools. You probably don’t need a statistic to convince you that more people are banking remotely this year, but to confirm what you may already suspect, 73% of U.S. adults reported being more likely to use digital financial services during the pandemic, and 2020 has seen a 50% increase in the use of mobile banking apps from 2019, according to research released by Filene Research Institute last month.

In one paragraph of the column, I wrote, Over the next 10 years, ATMs will be phased out, cash will begin to fade, and most payments will be made via mobile devices … In other words, getting on top of your mobile game is a do-or-die situation for credit unions.

Bingo! I have to say I’m quite impressed with myself for being so accurate in that statement, especially the “do-or-die” part. Because today, credit union members who have to go out in public to complete transactions, instead of doing it from the comfort of their virus particle-free homes, literally could die.

“Cash will begin to fade” wasn’t such a shabby prediction either. The credit union industry has been hesitant to embrace the idea of a totally cashless future, slowly introducing digital and contactless payment options while recognizing that cash still has an important place in the payments system, especially for underserved consumers. But now that we’re using UV light on bills to kill germs and wearing latex gloves to push ATM buttons, credit unions might fast track their development of digital payments tools and make them more accessible for all. (By the way, isn’t it funny that not that long ago, we never thought to immediately wash our hands after touching cash, even though it has always been full of germs and maybe even traces of cocaine?)

The correctness of that old column pretty much stops there. Here are a few examples of phrases that were a bit off the mark, followed by my reaction to each of them now:

By 2025, we’ll be used to things like situation- and location-aware banking apps, which will offer financial advice to consumers based on their unique circumstance, and push out notifications based on where they are. That sounds all fine up until “push out notifications based on where they are.” Where are we talking about? The kitchen versus the bathroom? If that was a reference to receiving a smartphone notification about a relevant deal upon walking into a retail store or car dealership, it can go into the “laughable in 2020” category. The closest thing we might see to that is an alert encouraging you to buy your 73rd pair of lounge pants triggered by you plopping down on the couch.

Branches are certainly changing, of course, as traditional teller lines get replaced with things like interactive kiosks and iPad-wielding employees roaming around to offer members one-on-one help. But they’re not going away. To all those credit unions that just spent a lot of money on one of those new “consultative” branches designed to look like a hip Brooklyn coffee shop, I’m very sorry, because no one is going to be hanging out in there. And if employees are going to be “roaming around,” they might have to get used to dressing like the Bubble Boy first. In all seriousness, though, drive-up and walk-up facilities might be where the branch model is headed instead.

Face-to-face interaction is a novelty that’s welcomed. When it comes to building brand loyalty among consumers, who are faced with more choices than ever before, treating them like living, breathing people with unique needs can go a long way. Ha, not anymore! The aforementioned “novelty” will probably go no further than a one-on-one video chat between a member and their personal banker. And yes, members should be treated like living, breathing people with unique needs, but don’t under any circumstances let them get close enough to actually breathe on you.

The 2016 column also mentioned my experiences at CUNA’s GAC, which got me pondering what a credit union executive’s life might look like the week of a big conference in 2025 if the coronavirus continues to disrupt our lives for years to come. Will they depart out the door of their home office (being that traditional offices no longer exist) and ride to the airport in a self-driving vehicle or Uber with a built-in plexiglass shield that seals the passenger off from the driver? Will they travel wearing an advanced full face shield that blocks germs and somehow still allows you to eat and drink on a long flight?

Maybe our executive of 2025 will be required to take a rapid COVID-19 test upon arriving at the self-contained conference center and hotel, and is only allowed in (but not out) after producing a negative result. Once inside, they can take off their gear, relax and mingle with the others, just like old times. They’ll reminisce about the good old days of 2019, when they could spontaneously wander about the city, in and out of hotels and restaurants, with anyone they pleased.

Five years from now, I’ll probably look back at this column and laugh at some of the thoughts I had about the near future. And hopefully, I’ll laugh because the thoughts were too absurd and not because they were not absurd enough.

Natasha Chilingerian is executive editor for CU Times. She can be reached at nchilingerian@cutimes.com.