Callahan Finds Q2 Originations Flat for Credit Unions
New numbers show that mortgages have recovered from a slump, but other loans are still down.
Credit union loan originations in the second quarter were about the same as a year ago — an improvement after the steep fall in loan production in the first quarter, according to Callahan & Associates, a credit union consulting firm in Washington, D.C.
Callahan’s quarterly Trendwatch report found credit unions originated $136.5 billion in loans of all types from April through June, down 0.1% from 2018’s second quarter. Originations from 2017’s second quarter to 2018’s second quarter rose 8.6%, but the gains withered away in the last half, and originations fell 5.5% in the first quarter.
Callahan estimates credit unions’ return on average assets will be an annualized 0.96% for the second quarter, up from 0.90% a year earlier with higher interest income behind most of the gain.
Meanwhile, CUNA Senior Economist Jordan van Rijn said credit unions are still seeing strong earnings and loan quality as the U.S. economy continues to grow, albeit at a slowing pace.
Van Rijn said business investment has been weakened by the uncertainties around President Trump’s trade war with China, worries about a no-deal Brexit and protests in Hong Kong that could trigger an international backlash against China.
But U.S. consumers are well employed, their confidence is high and a Commerce Department report released Thursday showed they continued to spend plentifully with retailers in July.
“Consumer spending is keeping the economy afloat; it’s something that could change very quickly,” van Rijn said.
The Fed’s 25 basis point drop in interest rates July 31 might also help generate more home purchases or refinances, van Rijn said.
Callahan analysts said they had heard reports from credit unions that their mortgages in the pipeline had increased in July and early August.
The Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington, D.C., reported Wednesday that mortgage applications rose 21.7% last week on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
On Thursday MBA released new estimates showing it expects third-quarter originations to rise 32.4% in the third quarter and 17.6 in the fourth quarter. Those estimates are up from two months ago when MBA was predicting gains of 20.4% in the third quarter and 4.8% in the fourth quarter. Almost all the improvement has come from a surge in refinancing.
“The 2019 refinance wave continued, as homeowners last week responded to extraordinarily low mortgage rates,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase applications also benefited from these lower rates, with activity increasing 1.9 percent last week and 12 percent from a year ago.”
In its previous Trendwatch, Callahan had estimated a 3.2% drop in first-quarter originations, but revised its numbers downward after NCUA released its data for the period several weeks later.
For the second quarter, real estate originations rose 7.6% to about $51 billion, while non-real estate loan production fell 3.2% to about $87 billion, based on NCUA first-quarter data and Callahan first-half data.
NCUA data shows real estate originations fell 5.5% in the fourth quarter and 12.2% in the first quarter. First mortgages fell 15.5% and other real estate rose 1.6% in the first quarter.
Non-real estate originations dropped from a high of an 11.5% gain in 2018’s second quarter to a 4.7% gain in the fourth quarter and a 12.3% drop in the first quarter, according to NCUA data.
For January through June, Callahan reported total originations were $248 billion, down 2.6% from 2018’s first half. First mortgages fell 3%, second liens rose 1.2% and non-real estate loans fell 2.8%.