Global ATM Count to Shrink, RBR Predicts

The number of ATMs in the world will shrink in the next few years largely due to declining demand for cash in China, but ATM markets in most other countries will actually grow, according to predictions from banking research and consulting firm RBR.

The London-based firm said the number of ATMs installed worldwide will drop from a peak of 3.28 million in 2017 to 3.23 million by the end of 2023, largely because in China — the world’s largest ATM market — a growing middle class is rapidly embracing digital payments, which is reducing the demand for cash.

However, RBR said it expected ATM markets in most other parts of the world to expand. Excluding China, the number of ATMs should grow from 2.54 million in 2017 to 2.66 million in 2023.

“China is by far the largest ATM market and home to almost a quarter of the world’s ATMs. After years of explosive growth, the ATM sector in the country went abruptly into reverse in 2017, with deployers withdrawing 20,000 ATMs. China’s burgeoning middle class has embraced digital payments enthusiastically, and as demand for cash falls, the number of ATMs in the country is expected to continue dropping,” RBR reported. “The move away from cash, while perhaps most starkly exemplified by China and the rise of mobile payment app giants, will also contribute to falling ATM numbers in several western European countries, although here it is payment cards and bank branch closures which explain the decline.”

ATMs aren’t going the way of the dinosaur quite yet, though, the company noted.

“Convenient access to cash remains a priority for a great many customers around the world, and ATMs will continue to be a key cash delivery channel in the years to come,” RBR researcher Rowan Berridge said.

The study follows other recent research into consumer habits by ATM operator Cardtronics, which found that 73% of U.S. consumers used cash regularly and that 81% of digital users said they tried to keep cash on hand always. Two-thirds of the respondents also said laws and ordinances should restrict retailers and restaurants from rejecting cash payments.

Another study this year, this one by KAL ATM Software, found that almost two-thirds of financial institutions expected their ATM networks to grow, but far fewer expected the ATM channel to become a more important part of their business. That survey of 470 financial institutions, ATM vendors, and ATM service providers and processors also found that only 56% expected ATMs to increase in importance and do more; far more (72%) said the same thing in 2017.

Nonetheless, 65% of the respondents in that survey said they planned to increase their ATM counts. About a quarter had no plans to change the number of ATMs, and 10% planned to decrease their ATM counts.