I don't know about you folks, but I'm politically exhausted. Every time it appeared that the political fires burning in our nation's capital were going to die down, someone threw more lighter fluid on the flames.
And so far, 2018 isn't starting out any easier. Two weeks into the year, the political chattering class – and everyone else for that matter – was trying to deal with the president of the United States saying something so abhorrent that even the best spinners couldn't handle it.
If 2017 was tough to handle, 2018 is shaping up to be a real doozy. All the Washington-based problems that credit union folks identified heading into 2017 are still on the table. And, a few more have been added to the mix. Don't believe me?
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Regulatory Relief, Overhaul or Rollback
What you call it depends on your position. But whatever you want to call it, it didn't happen.
Republicans controlled the White House, the House and the Senate. So, changes to the Dodd-Frank regulatory regime were going to be enacted.
The House passed Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling's Financial CHOICE Act. No Democrats voted for it.
On the Senate side, Democrats worked with Banking Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) to craft a more modest bill that made far fewer changes to Dodd-Frank than the House bill did.
That measure remains pending in the Senate and it's unclear how it's all going to shake out.
Why was nothing enacted?
Because the Senate didn't like what the House did and the House didn't like what the Senate did, and the Secretary of Treasury posed with his black-gloved wife for pictures of the new dollar bills.
Tax Overhaul
Credit union folks did a victory lap when the House and Senate passed a tax overhaul bill that retained the credit union tax exemption.
But halfway around that lap, a bitter truth emerged.
As with many such bills, there are problems with the enacted measure. Small things. And so, Congress is likely to have to pass a so-called "Technical Corrections" bill to solve some of those unintended consequences. And that means the banking industry has another crack at trying to convince Congress that credit unions are tax criminals. And unlike last year's bill, the technical corrections bill may not have reconciliation protection in the Senate.
That's a fancy way of saying that it's going to take 60 votes to pass it in the Senate rather than the 50 it took to pass the first tax bill.
And if the first technical corrections bill proves to be unacceptable, tax writers could always scale the bill down – causing another fight with the bankers.
The banker-credit union brawls could have more rematches than Muhammed Ali and Joe Frazier.
The Obama Administration ended with one vacancy on the NCUA board – the one vacated by Democrat Debbie Matz.
A year into the Trump Administration, there are at least two vacancies on the NCUA board. Matz's remains unfilled and the term of fellow Democrat Rick Metzger expired in August.
And that doesn't count the seat held by Chairman J. Mark McWatters. McWatters' name has been mentioned as a possible director for the CFPB.
Conceivably, that could leave three vacancies on the board – an unlikely development.
The only positive thing here is that there are only three members of the NCUA board, so there can't be even more vacancies.
The CFPB
Heading into the Trump Administration, it wasn't exactly clear what might happen to this agency. Republicans and the president hated it, but Senate Democrats most likely had the votes to block the types of drastic changes that the GOP might like to institute.
A year into the Trump Administration, it's still not clear what's going to happen to this agency.
Yes, Director Richard Cordray left. And yes, Congress nullified the agency's controversial mandatory arbitration rule.
But who exactly controls the agency until Trump nominates someone and that person is confirmed?
Well, those questions may only be answered by federal judges. No need to go into that well-documented mess here.
Meanwhile, Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney is running the joint on an acting basis. Mulvaney called the agency a "joke" when he was a Republican House member from South Carolina.
Well, the agency is Mulvaney's joke now – at least for the time being. Is Mulvaney going to be a caretaker until a permanent director takes over? Or is he going to start dismantling the building brick by brick?
The only person who knows is Mulvaney and he's not saying.
Oh, and folks, it's an election year. The entire House and one third of the Senate are up for reelection.
A few weeks into the year, Republicans look like they conceivably could lose the House and Senate unless they start cleaning up the messes caused by the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Politicians don't like to stay in Washington when there's that kind of uncertainty. Many of them (unless they're hiding out from angry constituents) like to go home and campaign for reelection.
That means that the House and Senate might not be in town long enough to solve many of these problems.
On the other hand, it also means they might not be in town long enough to create even more.
David Baumann is a Correspondent-at-Large at Credit Union Times. He can be reached at [email protected].
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