Credit unions did significantly better than most lenders in 2016 as the refinance boom continued and the housing market remained strong.

They had expected refinances to fall as mortgage rates rose. Neither happened.

This year? Among eight credit unions serving members from Long Island to Long Beach, most are — once again — anticipating mortgage interest rates will rise and refinances will drop.

The net effect will depend on purchase loans. Many expect rising rates will encourage those who have been sitting on the fence to move up to a larger house or a more desired neighborhood. Credit union experts are split on whether purchase loans will make up for losing ground on refinancing efforts in 2017.

Real estate is important among the eight surveyed credit unions:

  • BECU based near Seattle;

  • Bethpage Federal Credit Union on Long Island, N.Y.;

  • Digital Federal Credit Union based in the Boston area;

  • Ideal Credit Union based in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area;

  • Patelco Credit Union based in the San Francisco Bay Area;

  • SAFE Federal Credit Union based in central South Carolina;

  • Wescom Credit Union based in southern California; and

  • Wright-Patt Credit Union based in Dayton, Ohio.

The eight credit unions interviewed for this story accounted for about 4% of the U.S. total for first-lien real estate portfolios on Dec. 31, 5% of loan volume for the year, and showed much faster growth by both measures.

The eight had about $12 billion in first-lien mortgages on their books at the end of 2016, up 16% from a year earlier. First- and second-lien real estate loans together accounted for 64% of their loan portfolios at the end of 2016, up from 54% at the end of 2015. Among all credit unions, real estate accounted for 49% of loans as of Nov. 30, according to the latest CUNA Mutual Group report.

Among all U.S. credit unions, first-lien portfolio balances were $359 billion on Dec. 31, 2016, up 10% from a year earlier. Among these eight first-lien balances rose 16% to $14.4 billion.

Credit unions generated $143 billion in first-lien originations during 2016, up 14%. Those originations have spiked and ebbed with waves of refinancing: A 50% gain in 2012 was followed by two years of declines, and last year's modest gain followed 2015′s 33% surge.

The eight credit unions originated $7.2 billion in first-lien mortgages in 2016, up 24% from 2015. Second liens rose 19% to $2.3 billion.

Eric Bugger, Wright-Patt's vice president of consumer lending, is planning for refinances to decline in 2017, but he's not yet seen any signs in the southern Ohio market.

"We keep waiting," he said. "It's certainly not the refinance boom it was in 2012 to 2013, but it's just as good as it was in 2014, 2015 and 2016."

The Washington-based consulting firm Callahan & Associates estimated credit unions originated an estimated 7.6% of first-lien mortgages in 2016, up from 7.5% in 2015 and a peak of 8.4% in 2014.

Part of the reason is more online lending by companies such as Quicken Loans and its Rocket Mortgage app that have grown to account for nearly half of mortgage originations, Sam Taft, director of industry analysis for Callahan & Associates, said.

Quicken Loans' growth allowed it to eclipse J.P. Morgan Chase to become the nation's second-largest retail mortgage originator in 2016, generating $96 billion in loans. Wells Fargo remains the largest.

Credit unions' gain last year was small, but to put it in perspective, they had a mere 2.6% of the market in 2007 as the Great Recession began and the housing bubble burst.

"In the wake of the crisis, a lot of mortgage finance companies scaled back, so banks and credit unions picked up mortgages," Taft said.

At the end of 2014, Wright-Patt ($3.5 billion in assets, 332,205 members) had 30% real estate loans in its portfolio and 57% car loans.

Wright-Patt decided in 2015 to increase real estate lending to increase earnings using its large car loan portfolio to help balance the interest rate risk of increasing its holdings of more profitable long-term mortgages.

"Our position was too heavy in auto loans," Bugger said. "We didn't feel we were earning enough income."

Car loans typically stay in a portfolio two or three years, while mortgages typically are paid off in seven to eight years. Having a large base of auto loans allowed Wright-Patt to keep about 60% of its mortgages last year, which it expects to do again this year.

As a result, Wright-Patt's real estate portfolio grew 29% to $877.8 million in 2016, increasing from 29% of total loans in 2015 to 34% in 2016.

DCU ($7.6 billion in assets, 623,265 members), based in Marlborough, Mass., about 30 miles west of Boston, had a record year for real estate loan originations: About $1.2 billion, including about $500 million in refinances, $367 million in purchase loans and $315 million in home equity lines of credit.

Caleb Cook, DCU's vice president of mortgage lending, said the last three or four years have been the largest refinance boom in his career. "Now it's starting to taper off a little bit."

This year, he expects refinances will fall sharply, but purchase loans and second liens will pick up enough of the slack to make up the difference. Cook recalled when he announced his goal to beat $1 billion again: "They all looked at me like we're crazy."

"We believe a lot of people will be entering the housing market," Cook said. "Historically, the New England market has performed really well."

Ideal Credit Union, Woodbury, Minn. ($650 million in assets, 50,402 members) originated $62.9 million in first-lien mortgages in 2016, up 7%.

Faith Tholkes, Ideal's vice president of mortgage services, expects first-lien volume to grow about 4% to 5% in 2017.

"We've seen the last few months taper off in re-fi, but a nice uplift in purchasing volume," she said. "It's a really strong housing market."

SAFE ($1 billion in assets, 114,266 members) generated $44.7 million in first-lien mortgages in 2016, up 3%. Brett Harvey, manager of mortgage services at the Sumter, S.C.-based credit union, expects first liens to grow 4% this year, despite an anticipated drop in refinancing.

"There may be a drop off in refinances, but I expect we'll pick it up in the purchase market," he said. "We have a lot of homebuyers on the sidelines."

Also, SAFE expects to begin offering Veterans Administration loans this summer, which provide 100% financing and can be granted with a credit score as low as 600. The underwriting procedures are rigorous, and require special certifications.

"We've hired a headhunter to find the VA underwriter, which is hard to come by," he said.

Wescom ($3.2 billion in assets, 190,413 members) held $1.4 billion in real estate loans as of Dec. 31, a 13% increase and representing 71% of total loans.

The Pasadena, Calif., credit union originated $413.1 million in first-lien mortgages in 2016, up 27%. This year, it expects first liens to fall to $300 million as refinancing melts away.

"The market has been pretty strong, especially on the refi side," Keith Pipes, Wescom's executive vice president of lending and financial services, said.

Bethpage ($6.9 billion in assets, 303,851 members) held $4.3 billion in total real estate loans Dec. 31, up 21% from a year earlier and representing 87% of total loans.

The Bethpage, N.Y., credit union originated $2.1 billion in first-lien mortgages in 2016, up 21%, while second liens fell 14% to $461.2 million. About $183 million of its first liens are home equity loans taken out by homeowners who have paid off their mortgages.

Bethpage is the largest lender of home equity loans in the Long Island market, and the fifth-largest lender of first-lien mortgages, said Bethpage CFO Brian Clarke.

"We're in a great market for the real estate business on Long Island," Clarke said.

Bethpage expects refinances to fall, and purchase loan originations to be flat in 2017. But it still expects to outperform other lenders.

"We'll increase our market share, but of a slightly smaller pie," he said.

However, for the first five weeks of 2017, refinances are flat and purchase loans are up 20%. "Our estimates could be low," he said.

In the Puget Sound area, Lorraine Stewart, BECU's vice president of mortgage lending, planned to originate $1.2 billion in first-lien mortgages in 2016, figuring that rising interest rates would dampen demand for refinances. Instead, it originated $1.6 billion.

This year, BECU ($16.4 billion in assets, 1,000,944 members) expects to originate $1.3 billion in first liens with a drop in refinancing partly offset by an increase in purchase loans.

Stewart said she is cautious because median home prices now are higher in King County ($525,000) and Snohomish County ($410,000) than they were 10 years ago when the last housing bubble burst.

Then the bubble was fed by real estate speculation, and investment speculation in subprime mortgages bundled into complicated securities. Lending standards are much tighter now, she said. "That eases pressure on a bubble forming."

Patelco, based in Pleasanton, Calif., originated $927.8 million in first-lien mortgages in 2016, up 17% from 2015 and about double the amount four years ago. Refinances represented about 70% of the first liens.

Patelco ($5.5 billion in assets, 307,803 members) serving the Bay Area with 37 branches, will be adding to its sales force and re-opening a branch in Berkeley this year. Next year it will adding two branches in San Jose and Santa Clara, said Vince Salinas, vice president of home loans.

Home equity lines of credit and other second liens rose 7% to $132.5 million in 2017, and Salinas expects that grow 50% this year.

"We do have a lot of members who are looking to improve the homes they have now. They're looking to age in place. I think that's behind a lot of their home equity lending, rather than buying a bigger home, a more expensive home."

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Jim DuPlessis

A journalist for decades.