The election of a Republican president, coupled with GOP control of both houses of Congress next year, could result in big changes at the NCUA and the CFPB.

But if partisan gridlock continues unabated, House Republicans may jam through legislation that the Senate, where the minority can gum up the works, finds unacceptable.

“We are in polarizing times and barring large majorities in either chamber, it will likely continue to be a burdensome process to pass legislation,” Paul Gentile, president/CEO of the Cooperative Credit Union Association, said.

Republican Donald Trump was elected president, in a stunning upset over Democratic former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. During the campaign, Trump called for a moratorium on new regulations and repealing “much” of Dodd-Frank.

Republicans retained the House and despite predictions of a partisan change in the Senate, the GOP also maintained a majority there.

Credit union observers and officials said the election builds additional uncertainty at CUNA, where board membership remains in flux. Republican board member J. Mark McWatters has been nominated for a position on the Export-Import Bank board, but that nomination has remained stalled.

And President Obama has nominated John Herrera, the SVP for Latino and Hispanic Affairs for Self-Help Credit Union, for a vacant seat on the board. Both nominations expire at the end of the year.

The big battle that will affect credit unions may occur at the CFPB.

Given Republican anger at the CFPB, GOP members might be ambitious in going after the agency, said former NCUA Board Chairman Geoff Bacino, now a partner with Bacino & Associates.

“The big issue is in the Senate where Democrats felt that they had a chance to retake the majority,” he said. “With that plan falling short, the GOP is poised to make changes to the CFPB and I can see them going after this agency with a vengeance.”

And a recent appellate court decision might make that easier.

A federal appeals court last month ruled that the organization of the CFPB is unconstitutional since it is operated by a single person who is not answerable to anyone, but the court said that the agency may continue to operate.

The bureau will operate as a federal agency whose director is supervised and may be removed by the president, according to the court ruling.

Bureau officials said they haven't decided whether to appeal the ruling. But the decision effectively means that when he becomes president, Trump can remove Director Richard Cordray. Republicans strongly dislike Cordray, whom they view as dictatorial.

“President-elect Trump, theoretically, has the power to change the chairman,” NAFCU Vice President of Legislative Affairs Brad Thaler said.

“Director Cordray's term at the CFPB expires in July, 2018,” added John McKechnie, senior partner at Total Spectrum and former director of political affairs at CUNA. “It will be fascinating to see if Congress tries to reform CFPB before then, and it will be equally fascinating to see what kind of relationship develops between President-elect Trump and Director Cordray.”

House Republicans already are planning to push big changes at the CFPB. Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling has introduced legislation to overhaul Dodd-Frank. The bill is not expected to move this year, but House Republicans have made it clear that they will re-introduce it next year as part of a comprehensive policy agenda.

The legislation would convert the agency into a five-member commission and make it subject to the annual appropriations process.

Republicans have also said they want to prohibit the agency from issuing final regulations prohibiting mandatory arbitration agreements in financial services and employment contracts. And they want the agency to conduct more research before issuing final rules dealing with payday lending.

“The biggest impact may well be at the CFPB where the likelihood of a board being established, the exam threshold being raised and congressional oversight of the agency's budget being established is very possible with Trump and a Republican Congress,” Dennis Dollar, principal of Dollar Associates, LLC in Birmingham, Ala., and former chairman of the NCUA board, said.

Dollar said that the probability of a CFPB overhaul increased dramatically as a result of the Trump victory and the Republican majorities in the House and Senate.

However, Senate Democrats could force procedural votes on CFPB overhaul legislation and those votes could require 60-vote majorities. Senate Democrats, most notably Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), have been staunch defenders of the agency.

Still, Republicans have expressed frustration with the operation of the agency.

“The Democrats will try to hold their ground but it will be tough to fight off the pent-up anger of the GOP,” Bacino said.

One outspoken critic of the CFPB acknowledged that changing the agency's operation may take some time.

“The unaccountable and renegade CFPB will also be reined in and restructured; however, it will probably take longer to accomplish these reforms than most of us working in the financial services industry would like,” Marvin Umholtz, president/CEO of Umholtz Strategic Planning & Consulting Services in Olympia, Wash., said.

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