Almost all signs are rosy for house prices — at least the healthiest they've been since the eve of the Great Recession, according to a survey released Thursday.

"The report shows the market is rockin' and rollin'," Daren Blomquist, chief economist for ATTOM Data Solutions (the new parent company of RealtyTrac), said.

However, Blomquist said some markets are overheated and prices are so good that in about 25% of metro areas, most residents can't afford to buy a home.

"Something has to give," Blomquist said. "Interest rates just keep going lower and lower, and that in part has sustained this housing boom. There are limits to that."

The Federal Reserve Board has been looking to raise rates from their historic lows, and an overheated housing market would provide one good reason. And prices could fall because fewer outside investors are buying homes, he said.

The U.S. housing market appears to be on solid ground because of a strong job market, rising wages and near record low mortgage rates, according to economist Alan MacEachin of the $77.8 billion, Vienna, Va.-based Navy Federal Credit Union.

"Rising rents have made owning increasingly attractive relative to renting," MacEachin said. "Rising prices are eroding affordability, which may slow sales in the not too distant future. First-time buyers are particularly vulnerable to being priced out of the market if appreciation rates don't slow soon."

In the meantime, Thursday's report showed that single family homes and condos sold for a median price of $231,000 in June 2016, up 6% from the previous month and up 9% from a year ago to a new all-time high — 1% above the previous peak of $228,000 in July 2005.

Other key findings of the report included the following:

  • June was the 52nd consecutive month in which U.S. median home prices increased on a year-over-year basis;
  • About 30% of local metro markets reached a new all-time price peak in June;
  • Since U.S. house prices bottomed out in 2012, a total of 63 of the 130 markets analyzed (48%) have reached new all-time home price peaks; and
  • Home sellers in June 2016 sold homes for an average of $41,000 more than they purchased them for, a 22% gain in price on average — the highest average price gain for home sellers since September 2007.

 

Times were so good even Flint, Mich., felt the breeze. Metro areas with the biggest June price increases were Salisbury, Md. (22%), Pensacola, Fla. (21%), Tampa, Fla. (20%), St. Louis (19%), Boulder, Colo. (19%), and Flint (18%).

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Jim DuPlessis

A journalist for decades.