Overall, as of March 31, 2016, 1,941 credit unions of the 6,080 reported hold both direct and indirect auto loans. These credit unions represent 31.9% of all credit unions but 81.9% of the industry's total auto loan portfolio.

Of the 34 credit unions that hold more than $1 billion in auto loans, only five don't participate in indirect lending. For the other 29, the average percentage of indirect loans to total auto loans is 73.5%.

Direct Impact of Indirect

While representing only 31.9% of the industry, credit unions that participate in indirect lending are significantly impacting the auto portfolio.

Nationally, indirect loans reached $142.5 billion in the first quarter of 2016. Over the past 10 years, indirect lending as a percentage of total auto loans has climbed from 38.2% in the first quarter 2006 to 52.3% today. For the past few quarters, indirect lending growth has outpaced direct lending. Year-over-year, indirect lending boasted a 19.4% growth rate while direct lending expanded 8.8%.

Meanwhile, total auto lending expanded 14.1% year-over-year to reach $272.4 billion at the end of March 2016. Although growth is down from last year's 16.1% rate, that marked the 11th straight quarter of double-digit national auto loan growth. National market share expanded to 17.1%, up from 16.3% in the first quarter of last year.

In addition, new car loans are rising as a proportion of the industry's auto portfolio, up from 35.0% in the first quarter of 2012 to 38.1% as of this year's first quarter. And the average member relationship (total loan and share balances less member business loans, per member) at credit unions where there is some indirect lending is $17,491 and $16,618 for those credit unions with only direct loans, as of March 31, 2016.

Of course, larger credit unions – which tend to be those that participate in indirect lending – also tend to be those that can devote more resources toward segmenting and marketing broader relationships to those indirect loan holders. The average member relationship, while considered a key metric for measuring overall engagement, could be influenced here by the sheer size of the indirect loan itself. That said, however, we're also seeing a slight raise in the average share balances at credit unions that do indirect lending.

Delinquencies Don't Differ Dramatically

It's also widely assumed that higher delinquency rates are a byproduct of indirect lending. Maybe. Maybe not. While delinquency rates are considerably lower for new auto loans versus used auto loans, they are not significantly different for direct versus indirect loans.

Nationally, the new auto loan delinquency rate, at 0.35%, sits 31 basis points lower than the 0.66% used auto delinquency rate, according to our analysis of first quarter call report data. For indirect versus direct, the overall delinquency rates as of March 31 were 0.57% versus 0.51%, respectively.

Auto delinquency and net charge-off ratios did rise slightly over the past 12 months. Auto delinquency increased three basis points to 0.54%, and auto net charge-offs rose nine basis points to 0.62%. The auto net charge-offs rate has been creeping up steadily and is at its highest point in the three-year history of required reporting.

The national credit union auto portfolio has grown 32.4% since March 2014, yet the net charge-off auto amount has grown nearly twice as fast, at 59.1%, over the same period. The total net charge-off ratio is considerably down, at 0.52%, since its high of 1.20% in December of 2010 following the recession.

Currently, new auto loans comprise 38.1% of the national auto loan portfolio. New auto loans expanded 15.4% nationally to $103.9 billion in the first quarter of 2016 over the previous year's first quarter.

As new auto loans climb, the credit union industry could start to approach a balanced new and used auto loan portfolio. We also can expect to see credit unions refining their ability to deepen the relationships with those new and existing members who get their auto loans through the indirect channel.

Liz Furman is an industry analyst at Callahan & Associates. She can be reached at 202-223-3920 X212 [email protected].