SEATTLE — CUNA Chief Advocacy Officer Ryan Donovan said Monday there are four possible Presidential election scenarios that could impact credit unions in four different ways, including possible changes that could finally bring credit union regulatory relief.
Donovan shared his thoughts during a breakout session at the trade association's annual America's Credit Union Conference here at the Washington State Convention Center.
Scenario No. 1: The Status Quo
American voters could maintain the status quo and elect Secretary Hillary Clinton because they are uncomfortable with Trump. However, they are not enthusiastic about Clinton, Donovan said.
That lack of enthusiasm for Clinton will allow the Republicans to maintain a majority and control the House of Representatives and the Senate.
What does that means for credit unions? A lot more of the same.
"The gridlock is not going to change," Donovan said. "In fact, it's hard to think about how it might get worse, but I think in a status quo election the gridlock actually gets worse. For as unwilling as the Republican congress has been unwilling to work with President Obama, they will be even more unwilling to work with Secretary Hillary Clinton."
Donovan said he believes Republicans won't work with Clinton because they will not want her to accomplish anything to aid the party's candidate when he or she runs against Clinton in 2020.
However, in this scenario, CUNA would be able to lobby House Republicans to push back on new CFPB rulemaking that could come from the new administration, Donovan said.
Scenario No. 2: Conventional Wisdom
The conventional wisdom of the nation's political elite expects that in addition to Clinton winning the White House, Democrats will also win the Senate. However, Republicans will keep control of the House.
In this scenario, Donovan said he thinks there will be opportunities to move credit union priorities such as charter enhancements and CFPB changes.
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio would be expected to become the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, and he would be more open to considering regulatory relief for credit unions and small banks, according to Donovan.
In addition, if President Hillary Clinton is anything like former President Bill Clinton, she may like her husband be more inclined to make deals with Republicans in Congress.
"They (the Clintons) are dealmakers," he said. "You add in the fact that they don't have much ownership over Dodd-Frank or CFPB, there is at least enough there for a spark, and it will be up to us to make it something more than that."
Scenario No 3: The Democratic Trifecta
Democrats could achieve a trifecta, taking control of the White House, Senate and House.
While many may view this as an improbability, Donovan said he sees it as plausible and even more of a possibility, particularly if the electorate completely turns on the presumptive Republican candidate Donald Trump.
He noted that in large suburban areas such as Philadelphia, Minneapolis and Washington, D.C., which are located in traditional battleground states, established GOP voters who didn't vote for Trump during the primaries will not vote for him during the general election. In addition, 27 members of the House announced their retirement, and most of them are moderate Republicans.
In this scenario, it would be easier to advance credit union charter enhancement legislation. However, while it may be possible to get some technical changes to Dodd-Frank, structural changes would be unlikely, he said.
However, Donovan also noted in a Democratic trifecta, there would be a steady stream of new regulations coming from the CFPB, and tax reform may become more doable with one party in control.
"But it is going to look a little different from what the Republicans in Congress are working on — business income tax — (while) the Democrats will focus on individual income tax (reform)," he said.
Scenario No. 4: Make America Great Again
A Trump victory and Republicans maintaining control of the Senate and House is the fourth possible election outcome.
"This is an electorate that is fed up across the board," Donovan said. "Throughout the country, they don't want four more years of Obama, they don't want four more years of Clinton. They want change."
If that happens, the odds of Dodd-Frank reform would significantly increase and there might be even a moratorium on the CFPB; however, there would be no advancement of credit union charter enhancements, he said.
Other than that, Donovan noted it is very unclear what credit unions would get from a Trump administration.
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