The economy is likely to grow by 2% to 5% during the rest of the year – an economic forecast that will allow credit unions and their CFOs to concentrate on their core businesses and refrain from making drastic changes to their operations, economists said.

"The economy is going to continue to grow at a lackluster rate," Elliot Eisenberg, chief economist for the economic consulting firm GraphsandLaughs, said. "There's nothing that can get us out of this rut. We're going to be here for a while."

Eisenberg forecasted 2.5% gross domestic product for the final six months of 2016.

Recommended For You

"The likelihood of a recession is extremely low," he added. "We have enough to keep us going."

Others economists agreed.

"We have an economy on steady footing," CUNA Chief Economist Perc Pineda said.

Pineda said he had predicted 2.75% growth earlier this year.

"The economy has moderated," he said, noting he decreased his prediction to 2.5% growth.

Still, Pineda said credit unions are in good shape.

"Overall, we're still very upbeat about credit union operations," he said.

Curt Long, NAFCU's chief economist and director of research, agreed with that assessment.

"Credit unions are performing well," he said.

In such an economy, credit unions don't have to take huge risks to protect themselves from battering, and that's good news for CFOs.

"In this industry, we are very risk averse," said Chris Lawrence, CFO for American First Credit Union, a La Habra, Calif.-based credit union with $593 million in assets. "There is no reward for taking risks."

CUNA Mutual Chief Economist Steve Rick said with a recession unlikely, credit unions should consider building branches and moving forward with other capital expenditures.

"With no recession expected, it's a good time to invest," he said.

However, he added that as unemployment rates continue to fall, labor costs may increase for credit unions since they are likely to have to increase wages to keep current employees.

2016 economic forecastEisenberg thinks in the opposite direction. He said that given the digital economy, credit unions must prepare for a world in which their members no longer want to visit branches.

"How do you downsize the credit union building?" he asked.

Eisenberg said although job creation has begun to slow a bit, it will continue.

"There's no question that we're going to continue to produce jobs," he said.

Pineda said with the economy continuing to move in a positive direction – albeit slowly – the demand for loans will continue, helping to drive credit union memberships up by another three million people this year. His most recent projections stated the growing economy is likely to result in Americans continuing to release pent up demands for autos, furniture and appliances. New auto loans, credit card loans and mortgages will continue to be strong products for credit unions.

CU Direct recently estimated new car sales are expected to reach 17.7 million in 2016 – a 3.3% increase over last year. That is significant for credit unions, as the percentage of vehicles purchased through credit unions continues to increase.

Eisenberg said, however, that due to an aging population, those auto loan borrowers are no longer in their 20s and 30s; instead, they're in their 40s or 50s.

"Who you're marketing to has to change," he said.

Given that auto loan activity contributes to membership growth, Pineda noted credit unions should prepare themselves for slower membership increases as auto lending begins to decline.

Still, Americans are likely to consume more and save less this year, Pineda said.

2016 Economic forecast"Overall, we have seen the personal savings rate in the U.S. has started to fall," he said. "One could look at savings as a hedge for economic uncertainty. U.S. households are more confident about the U.S. economy today than last year, so we are seeing lower personal savings trending downward. That means higher consumption. Our forecast for savings growth this year is 5% – lower than the 6.8% last year for these reasons."

Pineda also predicted credit unions' return on assets will decline to 0.7% this year and could dip even more in 2017. Interest margins will be helped by loan growth, but hurt by the flattening yield curve. Mortgage refinancing also is likely to decline this year.

The upcoming presidential election is also creating some angst and uncertainty, Eisenberg said.

"There is a general concern that whoever wins is not going to be a very good business president," he said. "The election is hurting us. It doesn't excite the hearts of any businessmen."

Adding to that uncertainty are the unknown actions the Federal Reserve will take.

The Fed will next meet in June and could raise interest rates at that time. But that probably won't happen, Long said.

"We probably won't see rate hikes for the rest of the year," he said.

If the Fed decides to raise rates, credit union members are going to look for investment instruments that will provide a higher rate of return.

"Credit unions should realize that market interest rates will eventually go up and members, particularly those with high-balance accounts, will seek higher returns – [they may] transfer funds into money market mutual funds," Pineda said.

Lawrence added that even the risk of the Federal Reserve raising rates can be handled from a credit union perspective.

"While raising interest rates is a risk, [you should] manage your balance sheets so that it doesn't matter," he said.

Still, Lawrence said one should keep in mind that economic projections are often garbage.

"Monkeys do a better job than economists sometimes," he said.

NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.