A study from the United Kingdom-based Juniper Research found fraudulent online transactions will reach $25.6 billion by 2020, up from $10.7 billion last year. That means for every $1,000 spent, $4 will be fraudulent.

The study, “Online Payment Fraud: Key Vertical Strategies & Management 2016-2020,” identified three hot areas for online fraud: eRetail (65% of fraudulent transactions, or $16.6 billion), banking (27%, $6.9 billion) and airline ticketing (6%, $1.5 billion).

The study found that the implementation of chip and PIN services at point-of-sale locations in the U.S. is likely to be a key factor driving activity in the online fraud space. It argued that the greater security afforded by chip and PIN would persuade fraudsters to switch their attention from the in-store environment to the card-not-present space.

It said the continuing migration of both digital and physical goods to the online and mobile shopping space, which was valued at more than $1.7 trillion in 2015, would provide another incentive for fraudsters to focus their attention on these channels.

The study also claimed eRetail would be particularly susceptible to online deception, with the value of fraud in this sector increasing at twice that of banking and seven times that of airline ticketing.

The research highlighted two key areas for fraud within eRetail: Items bought online and picked up in the store, and electronic gift cards.

Meanwhile, the research claimed that although banks can counter online banking fraud by deploying new technologies such as 3D-Secure, which requires an additional step during the authentication process, and device fingerprinting, these measures often only provide only temporary relief as fraudsters rapidly discover new schemes.

Similarly, while extensive efforts made by the airline industry to deploy sophisticated fraud detection and prevention systems has reduced fraud significantly for some major airlines, the industry has also seen fraudsters shift their focus to other spots in their online systems that are perceived as weak.

“A few larger airlines claim that they have reduced eTicket sales fraud to less than 0.1% or 10 basis points of revenues,” report author Gareth Owen said. “When thwarted, however, fraudsters quickly move on to easier pickings such as frequent flyer fraud, for example.”

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Roy Urrico

Roy W. Urrico specializes in articles about financial technology and services for Credit Union Times, as well as ghostwriting, copywriting, and case studies. Also: writer/editor of a semi-annual newsletter for Association for Financial Technology since 1997 and history projects funded by the U.S Interior Department, National Park Service and Warren County (N.Y.).