Summer will inevitably bring cookouts, July 4th celebrations and trips to the beach.
But what about trips to the local credit union to get a car loan or mortgage?
The latter trips are not as inevitable, but they are still a possibility this year, according to several economists.
"Despite meager improvement in average wages, the labor market remains moderately weak," Brian Turner, president of Meridian Economics, a Plano, Texas-based firm, said. "These two conditions alone temper consumer spending behavior, particularly on big ticket items such as automobiles, homes, appliances and major home improvements."
And those who can afford autos are being conservative about such decisions, according to Michael Moebs, economist and CEO for Moebs $ervices, a Lake Forest, Ill.-based economic research firm.
"The consumers have the dollars, but they're not spending them," he said. "The American consumer isn't back."
And based on recent spending trends, for some consumers the recession simply is not over, Moebs said.
In addition, regions that rely on the oil industry – such as the Dakotas and the southwest – are feeling the unwelcome effect of the decrease in oil prices, according to Moebs.
"Those markets have fallen apart," he said.
Still, there are opportunities for credit unions to capitalize on trends, Moebs said, noting that credit union members – particularly those with kids in college – need money.
"The home equity [loans] and second mortgages are not things to shy away from," he said.
When it comes to auto sales, a larger percentage of purchases are being made through credit unions, according to CU Direct Market Research Analyst Jose Torres. A quarter of the vehicles being sold are financed through credit unions, he said in a recent webcast. That translated to $154 billion of the $620 billion in auto originations in 2015 and represented a 20% year over year increase.
CU Direct is an Ontario, Calif.-based CUSO that specializes in lending, automotive and strategic solutions for credit unions.
Vehicle sales are likely to increase this summer, Turner said. He added that historically, seasonal auto purchases have peaked during the third and fourth quarters of the year.
"Given current sales, this portends to stronger sales this summer and fall, but no one should expect it to be robust in nature," he said.
Torres said auto loans now comprise one-third of credit unions' portfolios and are the fastest-growing part of their portfolios. More than one in four credit union members have auto loans, he said.
Turner recently reported credit unions have seen a 32% increase in auto loans during the past two years. By comparison, during the same time period, credit unions saw a 17% mortgage loan increase.
He tempered that the majority of that loan increase can be attributed to larger credit unions – those with assets of $500 million or more.
Torres said new car sales are expected to reach 17.7 million this year – a 3.3% increase over last year. He said in addition, the percentage of people who lease their vehicles is soaring. In 2011, 19% of vehicle transactions were leases; that grew to 30% this year, he said.
And more and more of those vehicle sales are coming in the form of SUVs and trucks, according to Moebs and Torres.
"Those are doing incredibly well," Moebs said.
Indeed, 1.4 trucks are now being sold for every car, Torres said.
Credit unions are capitalizing on the increase in indirect vehicle sales, Torres added. That trend is likely to continue, he said, adding that over the past five years, indirect vehicle sales that were financed by credit unions doubled.
But for credit unions, indirect sales are far less profitable than direct sales, Moebs said.
Considering the conservative spending trends among consumers, vehicle purchasers are fighting even harder to get a good deal.
"There's a lot of deal-making going on," Moebs said. "Consumers are haggling to get the best deal possible. "
Of course, some of that haggling results in lower prices, meaning a credit union will make less money on those loans.
"The profitability isn't there," Moebs said.
Torres said another auto purchase trend will continue this summer and beyond: Near prime and subprime borrowers are the fastest growing segments of the market, with more than 36% of the market fitting into these categories, he said.
But those who do take out vehicle loans are paying on time, Torres said.
Loan delinquencies did not increase during the fourth quarter of last year compared to the same time period in 2014, according to Torres. He added the delinquency rate at credit unions remains half of what it is in the remainder of the loan market.
Meanwhile, trends in home purchasing are a mixed bag, according to Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate.com's chief financial analyst.
"Mortgage rates are still very low," he said. "Rents continue to rise. Home affordability is enticing."
Bankrate is a New York City-based consumer financial services company.
McBride has argued the Federal Reserve has been keeping interest rates too low and should consider raising them.
However, low interest rates could result in a better mortgage lending summer for credit unions, Turner said.
"The encouraging news is that 2016 spring and summer purchase applications are expected to be greater than in 2015," Turner said. "This outlook is supported by recent shifts in mortgage financing costs that show the average rate for a 15- and 30-year fixed rate mortgage loan has fallen over the past 12 months from 3.52% and 4.22% to 3.26% and 3.88%, respectively."
At the same time, household incomes remain stagnant and home buyers are reluctant to go shopping until they see an increase in their paychecks, McBride said.
And many prospective home buyers are still feeling the effects of the recession, Moebs said. "Twenty-five percent of [home owners are] still under water with their mortgages. That's a real drag," he said.
Still, there is some good news in the mortgage space, Turner said.
"New and existing home sales have recently returned to a level of 5.8 million annual sales," Turner said. "This compares with 6.4 million annual sales at this time last year."
He said the Mortgage Bankers Association reported mortgage originations are projected to top 1.558 million applications in 2016, compared with 1.63 million in 2015. That represents a 4% decline.
But Moebs said there are opportunities for credit unions to capitalize on. More people who own one home are considering the purchase of a second home or condominium, he said. In addition, the cost of postsecondary education continues to increase, creating a new struggle for some homeowners. Those people may consider taking out a second mortgage or a home equity loan to help pay for a child's education.
And it's still a seller's market, Moebs said. Indeed, RealtyTrac recently reported home sellers sold their homes in March for $30,500 more than they purchased them for, representing a 17% gain, the largest since December 2007.
Moebs said if the home buying market remains weak, credit unions may loosen their underwriting standards, which would be a mistake.
"Let's not get too aggressive in it," he said.
Turner agreed, stating credit unions should be patient and not increase risk.
"The industry struggles not only from moderately weak loan demand but also relatively low interest rates," he said. "Even if demand explodes over the next couple of quarters, it still provides relatively low total return for taking on the credit risk that remains in question for at least another two quarters."
Therefore, credit unions should not take on more risk in an effort to immediately increase revenue.
"Credit unions should tip the balance of risk as to protect credit exposure rather than incremental revenues from discounted quality until market rates begin to shift upward later this year or in early 2017," Turner said.
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