The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged after the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, and one observer said the Fed is being bullied into keeping rates low.
"The mere mention of a rate hike sends the market into convulsions. That's the big reason why the Fed has been gun shy on raising rates," Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, said in an interview with CU Times.
He argued the Fed needs to raise rates now, before another economic downturn.
Recommended For You
"That's tough medicine for investors who have been spoiled by low rates," he said. "A rate hike does not represent the Fed stepping on the brakes, it's just been lifting its foot off the gas a little bit."
The broader markets were down prior to the FOMC announcement and rebounded after the Fed announced the rates will remain at current levels.
The rate remained unchanged despite moderate growth in economic activity, including gains in household spending, strong job gains and an improving housing sector, according to an FOMC statement. The committee cited softer fixed business investments and net imports, as well as inflation running lower than the committee's objective of 2%, as reasons for keeping the rate between 0.25% and 0.50%.
The committee said it expects economic conditions to evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate.
The last time the Fed raised rates was in December.
McBride said he anticipates the Fed will leave rates at their current levels and not move forward on a rate hike until April or June.
"They have been really gun shy about withdrawing those 0% rates," he said. "Investors have been very spoiled by it. The Fed is waiting for the stars to align perfectly, not just here in the U.S. but in regard to financial markets and economies around the globe. That's a tough standard, in terms of that next rate hike."
Others agreed that a rate hike could occur at one of the FOMC's next meetings.
NAFCU Chief Economist Curtis Long said, "Barring an unforeseen setback, NAFCU expects that the committee will raise rates no later than June."
CUNA Chief Economist/Chief Policy Officer Bill Hampel added, "It was no surprise that the FOMC stood pat on the Fed funds rate at today's meeting. However, considering that core consumer inflation is firming and the labor market continues to strengthen – and is very close to full employment – an increase at the June meeting, or perhaps even in April, is very likely."
Hampel predicted the Fed will raise short-term interest rates several times in 2016.
However, holding off on additional rate hikes will become a longer-term issue, according to McBride. He pointed out that if and when the economy slows in the future, the only proven mechanism for generating economic growth is to cut rates. However, with rates near zero, it leaves the Fed with no trigger to pull for future economic slowing.
"The Fed can't cut interest rates if they haven't first hiked interest rates," he said. "That's why they need to do some of this now. Without it, they don't have anything proven to work with."
He added that even at their current levels, rates continue to stimulate the economy, but financial institutions will benefit because as the rates go up, they will breathe life into their interest margins.
© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.