Talk of higher interest rates wasn't enough to boost credit union CEOs' optimism in the third quarter of 2015, according to Catalyst Corporate Federal Credit Union's latest Credit Union CEO Confidence Survey.
Catalyst's third quarter overall index came in at 28.89, down 2.57 points from the previous quarter and the lowest it's been in at least four quarters. And although CEOs said they were more optimistic during the third quarter about their credit unions' current financial condition, they became less optimistic in every one of the five other survey measures. Confidence in the anticipated financial condition of credit unions in six months dropped from 41.91 in the second quarter to 40.41, for example, and confidence in expected loan demand fell 2.07 points to 30.44. Confidence in expected share deposit growth sank 4.47 points to 18.08, according to Catalyst.
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But the largest quarterly declines related to how CEOs felt about members. Optimism regarding their members' current financial condition dipped 3.91 points to 23.18 quarter over quarter. Similarly, CEO expectations for members' financial condition in six months dropped 3.56 points to 26.10.
“The decline in confidence related to members' financial condition surprises me,” Catalyst Strategic Solutions Advisory Service Vice President Steven Houle said. “Household wealth continues to improve when considering home values and the stock market.”
“I'd have to think this sentiment might be short-lived, especially after Friday's strong nonfarm payroll report, which reported job gains of 271,000,” he added. “Generally speaking, I think credit unions will finish 2015 with very good earnings numbers, and should turn in much the same next year.”
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