ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.–Poison's "Nothin' But a Good Time" blared from the speakers this morning as 300 credit union executives gathered to hear CSCU Senior Vice President of Finance & Technology Tom Davis talk about the future of emerging payments at the 2015 CSCU Solutions conference in St. Petersburg, Fla.
Introduced as "the Mick Jagger of payments" by the lead singer of an '80s cover band that kicked things off, Davis spent about an hour talking about where one of the credit union industry's biggest sources of revenue is headed.
The number of credit unions is dropping, he warned, citing predictions that there will only by about 5,400 credit unions by 2018. "Look around you; some of you might not be here by then," he warned. "You have to realize the value of your payment products."
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The mood quickly turned serious as Davis ran through the litany of companies elbowing their way into the payments sector – each carrying its own set of risks, opportunities and threats for credit unions. They included big names, such as Amazon Payments, PayPal, Apple Pay, Square, Isis, Google, Samsung and even Facebook, which launched a payment feature within its Messenger tool in March. "Facebook?!" Davis exclaimed. "Who the heck thought Facebook would start taking payments?"
To Davis, the opportunities in emerging payments seem to outweigh the risks, however. "We're going to be OK," he told the crowd. "We're going to be just fine."
Much of his focus was on Apple Pay, which he said is still a small player despite its highly publicized launch.
Though about two-thirds of contactless dollars go through Apple Pay right now, he said, Apple Pay as a whole is just 0.07% of consumer spend. In fact, he said, 85% of iPhone 6 users who have credit cards haven't used Apple Pay.
"It hasn't taken off yet," he said. "There's a lot of talk about it. We know it's there, but we've still got a long way to go. There's a lot of disinterest in that space right now. It's just not there yet. It's still small; still coming along."
Read more: Davis says credit unions should view Apple Pay as a way to avoid losing money …
Don't look at Apple Pay as a way to make money; look at it as a way to avoid losing money, he advised. "Everybody thinks Apple Pay is going to drive value to you. You think everybody is going to spend more? It's about what happens to you if you don't take Apple Pay rather than if you do," he said.
"All of this stuff is your products," he said. "This is what you'll be doing three to five years from now, if not today."
Here are a few other things Davis had to say about a variety of emerging payment methods quickly entering the credit union space:
1. Wearables. "Payment credentials are coming into wearables," he said. "Deal with it."
2. Person-to-person payments. "I'm going to tell you something: You've gotta do it," he said. You've gotta figure it out. You've gotta have that online presence." Part of the reason is control. "We need to make sure it's happening the way we want."
3. Beacons. Soon people will be able to put payment beacons on their cards so that they can do things like pay for food at the McDonald's drive through, he said. "This isn't the Jetsons, guys. This is here today."
4. Bitcoin/virtual currency. "These are new rails," he said. "They're not VisaNet. And they're frictionless and unregulated."
5. Virtual branches/tellers. "Now we're getting smartphone banks," he said. "Smartphone only. No footprint; no branches." Some are outside the U.S., and because they have no capital structure, they can offer things such as free ATMs and free prepaid cards, Davis explained. Though they could be a threat, Davis said they probably won't get into mortgage loans and other highly regulated activity.
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