Cryptocurrency fans can rejoice. The number of active bitcoin users worldwide will spike to some 4.7 million by the end of 2019, up from just 1.3 million at the end of 2014, according to data recently released by Juniper Research.
However, the Hampshire, U.K., research firm said usage will continue to be dominated by exchange trading, with retail adoption largely restricted to relatively niche demographics.
Both data and opinion appeared in The Future of Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin & Altcoin Impact & Opportunities 2015 – 2019, Juniper's study released March 17.
But while a number of high-profile retailers support bitcoin payments, activity levels from both online and offline usages are extremely low, according research report author Dr. Windsor Holden.
“While average daily transaction volumes have increased by around 50% since March 2014, the indications are that much of this growth results from higher transaction levels by established users rather than from any substantial uplift in consumer adoption,” Holden wrote in the study.
The report cited several factors it claimed would continue to inhibit growth, most notably the difficulty in communicating the concept of cryptocurrency payments to consumers. It also argued that bitcoin's historical association with – and continued use by – criminals for illegal purchases and money laundering would act as a further deterrent to mass adoption.
The report noted that with many bitcoins being hoarded by early speculators, currency supply could be further restricted, with bitcoin mining profitability threatened by a combination of the cryptocurrency's volatility, lower bitcoin yields and rising electricity costs.
The introduction of licensed, regulated exchanges could lead to stabilization in currency values and, subsequently, an increase in bitcoin retail transaction adoption, the report said.
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