By all accounts, credit unions have connected with the booming U.S. economy, and the industry's fourth-quarter 2014 financial performance reflected the nation's economic improvement, according to Callahan & Associates' 4th Quarter Trendwatch webinar.
Rising wages, declining unemployment and a national GDP of 2.4% have created a consumer confidence level that has driven credit union key performance ratios to near record levels, according to Callahan EVP Jay Johnson, one of the presenters at the Feb.19 online event.
Thanks to strong asset quality, record capital and net income levels, and rapidly growing loan portfolios, credit unions are in an extremely good position to ride the wave as the overall economy continues to crest, said Johnson, who used the Washington consulting firms Peer-to-Peer Analytics to chart the industry's growth trajectory.
"All aspects of the portfolio are moving up and asset quality continues to improve," he noted. "The economy's momentum will continue to propel credit union growth."
As of Dec. 31, 2014, credit union industry assets totaled $1.14 trillion, a 5.8% increase last year, which compared favorably for the 3.9% growth during 2013, according to Callahan statistics. Loans totaled $721.6 billion for 2014, reflecting a 10.5% growth rate for 2014 that beat the 7.9% growth posted for the previous year.
Shares also increased 4.6% to $964.3 billion, beating 3.7% growth for the previous year. Capital increased 8.3% to $130 billion, up from 3.2% in 2013, and aggregate membership jumped to 100.7 million, a 3.3% increase that compared favorably to a 2.5% membership increase in 2013.
Only investments took a hit, declining 3.2% to $357.2 billion, a further slide when added to the 2.1% decrease in 2013, Johnson said.
"First mortgage originations fell 20% compared to the previous year, but credit unions still performed better [than] the overall market, which dropped 40% during the same period," Johnson said. "A decade ago, we talked about credit unions moving from 2% of the mortgage market to 10%, and we're almost there."
Credit unions also held more than 10% of the deposit market share in 27 states across the U.S., Johnson said. Alaska topped the list with a 40.3% deposit market share, followed by New Mexico (21.4%), Washington (21/1%), Vermont (20.7%) and Idaho (19.5) to round out the top five ranking.
The 4.6% share growth rate proved to be a mixed bag of gains and losses. Individual retirement accounts, Keogh accounts and share certificates declined slightly in 2014, offsetting 8.5% growth in regular shares, compared to 7.8% in 2013. There was 10.3% growth in share draft accounts in 2014, compared to 6.8% for the previous year.
However, loan growth remained the true credit union success story, Johnson said. Topping the industry's portfolio was first mortgage (fixed) at 24,5%, followed by used auto loan at 20.2%. First mortgage (adjustable/balloon/hybrid) comprised 16.6% of the portfolio, with new auto loans weighing in at 12.1% growth. Other loans, including credit cards and member business loans, made up the aggregate portfolio's balance.
Every loan category posted faster year-over-year growth compared to the previous year, but new auto loans sped to the front with 21% growth in 2014 compared to 12.7% in 2013, according to Callahan. Last year, MBLs grew 14.1%, compared to 11.3% during the previous year, and used auto loans followed with 13% growth in 2014, compared to 10.5% in 2013.
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Despite a downturn in first mortgages, credit union mortgage market share topped 30% in 11 metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S. Among them, Binghamton, N.Y., ranked highest in the group with 36.06% market share and Utica-Rome, N.Y., came in 11th place with 30.45%. In terms of total dollar amounts, fourth place entry Burlington-South Burlington, Vt., ranked highest with almost $1.7 billion in mortgage originations.
Strong financial performance puts credit unions as institutions and as an industry in a good position to address interest rate risk and risk-based capital concerns, Johnson said. He encouraged credit unions to stay involved in any and all RBC discussions with NCUA.
"Credit unions maintained stable capital during the recession, and any failures were largely due to fraud, making this a supervisory issue rather than a capital-based issue," Johnson said. "Risk-weighting has been a big focus of RBC discussions, but RBC should be used as an exam tool. Making it a hard rule in the books doesn't make any sense."
The Callahan webinar also took macro and micro views of the economy during its 65-minute session. Scott Gilbert, VP and portfolio manager for Goldman Sachs, opened with an overview of U.S. economic growth, setting the stage for credit union prosperity. Gilbert also manages Callahan's Trust for Credit Unions.
Various credit union scenarios were illustrated by slides throughout the presentation. One compelling scenario came from Wally Murray, president/CEO of $515.7 million Greater Nevada Credit Union in Carson City, Nev. The cooperative serves a community devastated by the recession and that was all but abandoned by businesses and community banks.
Still, GNCU is helping members get back on their feet. Mortgage down payment assistance programs, government guaranteed loans and volunteering in community development efforts have helped strengthen the community economically and psychologically, he said.
Murray said GNCU benefitted growing its assets 13.4% to $515.7 million, increasing loans 13.9% to $318.7 million and driving shares up 13.8% to $461.8 million during 2014.
"We were largely consumer-oriented and still are, but the exodus of community banks has given us some great opportunities on the business lending side. That's going to be big for us," Murray said.
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