The jury is still out on whether new regulations are slowing down mortgage lending. It could just be the weather.

According to data collected by the Mortgage Bankers Association, applications for purchase money mortgage loans are running 15% behind the association's forecasts for this year. The MBA had predicted this would be the year purchase money lending volume would surpass refinances in the U.S.

Mike Fratantoni, the association's chief economist, said that milestone would likely still happen, but purchase money lending may not be as strong as first anticipated.

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