The U.S. housing finance market may be poised for a historic shift away from a long trend of primarily refinancing existing real estate loans to primarily funding new real estate purchases.

In its May forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimated that the market shift would take place sometime in the middle of this year. The Washington-based association has forecast refinance loans at 74% of the mortgage originations in the first quarter of this year and 67% in the second quarter, but only 46% in the third quarter and falling to 42% by the end of the year.

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