Sarah Snell Cooke's column, "Parsing the Possible Harm Awaiting NCUSIF" (Aug. 17 issue) presents some unfounded extrapolations about potential losses to the NCUSIF. The column simply took the assets of all CAMEL 4 and 5 credit unions, assumed they would all fail and applied the average loss ratio of 17% to come up with a "potential for $6.8 billion in losses to the insurance fund."
It's easy to use speculative assumptions to quickly concoct a scary number in these admittedly challenging and uncertain times. But, let's get to the real math for the NCUSIF by putting some context on probable losses and reserve needs.
Reserving and loss-projection methodologies are based on historical data applied to assumptions about (1) the probability of default and (2) the loss given default.
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