As I write this, the entire credit union industry is jittery with anticipation regarding Friday, Sept. 24 with the corporate credit union regulation and legacy asset plan and possible execution of it.
Some have suggested a scenario where the so-called legacy assets might go straight to market. Realizing the as-yet unrealized losses without some sort of government guarantee will tack on a $10 billion premium for federally insured credit unions. If that's to be the case, credit unions' current estimated assessment over the next seven years of 15 basis points per year will rise to 25 basis points a year.
And that's assuming the NCUA could broker a deal with Treasury to spread that additional payment out over seven years; the agency was working to ensure the credit unions didn't have to pay up front. If the industry had to take that hit all at once as a worst-case scenario, the assessment could be upward of 100 basis points, leading to catastrophic natural person credit union failure and losses. The effect would ripple through the credit union industry, service providers such as Credit Union Times, the trade associations and American consumers who have demonstrated their trust in credit unions by parking their savings in droves. The NCUA itself would lose a large chunk of its authority and possibly risk being folded into the FDIC or other regulatory body.
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