Successfully navigating the perilous seas of the deepest economic decline since the great depression and a global credit market meltdown was no easy task... congratulations. Sure most of us have some water in our boat needing to be pumped (not bailed) out, but we were available for members when they needed us most. Coming into the recession, the fundamentals of solid capital levels and disciplined underwriting helped us weather a serious storm. From this position of strength we helped a record number of members improve their cash-flow through refinances, extended credit when others had exited the market and provided a safe haven for member deposits.

Is it over yet? Metaphorically moving from the sea to land, we are on the road to recovery, but the road is filled with ruts and loose stones. Stumbles are likely; falls (double-dip recession) are possible. If this was the great recession, why would you expect a normal recovery? While many economic indicators are headed in the right direction, there are a great many risks as well. Credit crisis II could easily begin in Europe, the commercial real estate markets, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, or any combination of the above. Given unprecedented global fiscal and monetary stimulus, interest rate spikes are possible and would trigger a major economic setback. Indexed interest rate resets would generate payment shocks and likely set off round two of delinquencies, defaults and charge-offs. The list goes on and on.

Am I pessimistic about the future? No, we will recover, but I am also pragmatic, knowing recoveries are not straight lines moving from the trough of the recession to the next peak. I will become more confident when I see consistent, sustainable employment gains, particularly in the private sector.