HOLLYWOOD, Fla. -- The rating agencies will have to make some serious education efforts to earn their credibility back and help reinvigorate securitizations.
CUNA Mutual Group Director of Secondary Marketing Alan Bahr explained during CUNA's Discovery Conference that the ratings agencies had an incomplete picture of the risks of the subprime market prior to the fall out. They were basing their ratings on essentially 10 years of historic data--10 really good years for the real estate market at the same time rates were falling.
"They didn't have the right data to analyze these deals," Bahr said. "Now they do. They've seen probably about as bad as it can get."
Also, part of what happened in the subprime crash was that investors got antsy with the A- and B-rated investments in collateralized debt obligations; they had higher risk with not as much return as equities. So, those A- and B-grade investments became their own CDOs.
Fortunately, credit unions, which have historically had trouble breaking 2% of the market, are now around 3.5% as a result of their careful lending methods, according to Robert H. Tort, director of private label solutions PHH Mortgage.
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