LA JOLLA, Calif. -- The recession won't be as severe as headlines say, but unique market forces will make it a tough recovery, said Joe LaVorgna, Chief US Economist at Deutsche Bank, who headlined this morning's WesCorp's Future Forum.

LaVorgna echoed what many credit union economists have already pointed out: household consumption is outpacing household income at such a fast rate, it will limit the economy's ability to recover.

"And, consumers spend around 4.5% of their income on energy, up from 3% a few years ago," LaVorgna said. While the economist stopped short of predicting energy costs will require 7% of consumer budgets by year's end, as other economists have, he said an increase to 5.5% still "posts a dramatic downside to economic recovery."

However, the recession does lack problems from previous slow downs, he said, like excesses in capital spending and inventories. And, a weak US dollar is boosting exports, which account for 14% of the GDP, he said.

"The bottom line is, we won't see a freefall, because the imbalances in the economy aren't there," he said.