MADISON, Wis. -- If the fourth quarter follows typical seasonal patterns, credit unions could expect to see modest gains or even a slight decline in membership growth by the end of 2007.

According to CUNA Mutual Group's latest Credit Union Trends Report, through the first ten months of 2007, the nation's credit unions increased membership by 2.0 million. This year-to-date increase is above annual gains in each of the past six years. Year-over-year growth rates are trending up to levels not seen since 2001, said Dave Colby, chief economist at CUNA Mutual.

"Even with above trend membership gains, we are not seeing corresponding improvements in savings or lending growth," Colby said. "Without more balances, member increases become an expense driver."

A more detailed look at the sources of growth shows the 500 largest credit unions accounted for 92% of gains through the first three quarters of 2007, according to the report, which cites data from CUNA Economic & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Strategic Planning. Over this same period, 4,533 credit unions or 53% of all existing credit unions posted membership declines including 135 of the top 500. These credit unions held 27% of the movement's assets.

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