Overall, 15% of survey respondents said they plan to fork out more money for the holidays than they did the previous year; the survey came up with the same figure last year as well. However those expecting to spend about the same as last year dropped from 52% in 2006 to 47% this year.

Those planning on spending somewhat less than last year increased from 14% to 17% while those planning to spend 'much less' held steady at 18%. The combined 35% planning to spend less in 2007 was the highest percentage yet in the eight years of the CUNA/CFA survey.

Those in the 'don't know/don't spend' category increased from 1% in 2006 to 3% for 2007.

These results suggest, Hampel said, "that a number of U.S. households feel financially strapped and are looking for ways to cut spending…Given all the other headwinds the consumer is facing this year, mainly a very small proportion of households facing extreme difficulties with their mortgage payments and a much larger proportion of households seeing the value of their wealth declining as housing prices fall, I'm actually surprised that the results were not weaker than they are."

The 2006 survey, Hampel said, led them to believe that holiday spending would be lackluster in 2006 and, indeed, growth was at 5.1%, its lowest in three years.

"Our results this year are noticeably but not dramatically softer than last year," he explained. "This suggests that the bottom will not fall out of retail sales this holiday season but it will be a tough year for retailers." Hampel projected closer to 4% growth for the 2007 holiday season.

Historically consumer debt concerns have impacted consumer spending, said CFA Executive Director Stephen Brobeck. "This year, given the mortgage meltdown and the continued escalation of credit card and payday loan and other high-cost debt, we would expect that more consumers are concerned about paying off this debt than last year," he said, "But that's not the case." What the survey found was that the 'very

concerned' fell from 15%

last year to 11% this year and those 'somewhat concerned' decreased from 18% to 13%. At the same time there was a four-percentage-point-increase, from 32% in 2006 to 36% for 2007, in those 'very unconcerned.'

"We must remember that most Americans carry no or very sustainable debts. Only half, for example, revolve credit card balances," Brobeck pointed out. "And, despite all our concern about a collapsing mortgage market having a devastating effect on many families, it is estimated that perhaps only two million families, or 2%, will lose their homes to foreclosure this year."

Still, consumer debt concerns remain high, particularly for those with household incomes below $50,000. "Among these, over half, 53%, are concerned about meeting their loan obligations and nearly 30% are very concerned," he said.

Also, fewer consumers than last year said they were concerned about paying off credit card balances from holiday-related spending, 24% this year versus 33% from 2006.

Brobeck commented, "More may be more determined to avoid credit card debt hangover after the holidays." CFA offered holiday shoppers tips to help them succeed in curtailing spending at this time of the year. He encouraged consumers to pay by cash or check, budget ahead of time, look online or at wholesale clubs for values on purchases, pay off credit card debt after the holidays, and begin saving for the following year.

The CFA/CUNA survey was conducted Nov. 8-11 among more than 1,000 representative adult Americans by Opinion Research Corporation with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

"By partnering with CFA and combining holiday debt-control tips with our survey results, we raise credit unions' profile in the national media as a voice for the consumer," CUNA Senior Vice President of Communications Mark Wolff explained. "This not only helps educate consumers, it strengthens the credit union brand in the marketplace."

After eight years of performing the survey, it has gained widespread media attention as well. Reporters from ABC, NBC, CBS, ABC Radio, NPR, CNN, Fox Business Network, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, Reuters, PBS Nightly Business Report, and Hearst Argyle television attended the event. Later in the afternoon, CUNA's Hampel also had an interview on CNBC TV regarding the survey.

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