NEW YORK — The Wall Street Journal has been following the housing crisis and foreclosure blues fallout with an eye to its possible political ramifications, noting that six of the 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates in the country are considered by leaders of both parties to be swing states.
Number two on the top 10 list is Florida, with one foreclosure for every 248 households and number seven Ohio, which has one foreclosure for every 319 households, according to a survey by RealtyTrac Inc., the California property-research company. The Sunshine State was ground zero in the 2000 election recount and Ohio (the Buckeye State) figured in the 2004 electoral column for Bush. Current thinking among the pundits has it that 2008 may prove to be a reversal for Republicans, thanks to the housing bust.
Considerations along those lines include: Some 11,000 Central Florida homeowners have already defaulted on their mortgages through August. Central Florida voted overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004 and a recession (now being spoken of in volumes above a whisper might swing voters the other way (to Democrats).
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Small-time speculators and buyers who got no-money-down mortgages at teaser rates fueled Osceola County's foreclosure boom. Now trapped as home prices plummet, they can't sell or refinance and can't keep up the payments.
Michigan ranked No. 4 in foreclosure rates. and three Western battleground states, Nevada (No. 1), Arizona (No. 5) and Colorado (No. 8) also make the list. President Bush carried all of those states expect Michigan in 2000 and 2004.
While it's still too soon in the election cycle (both parties still have multiple candidates and primaries are still a ways off) it appears that grass roots, down home issues will play a larger part in voters' decisions compared to the 2004 election, which centered on homeland security issues and progress in the war in Iraq.
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