It's another brand new year and time once again to drag out the old crystal ball. Here are my annual predictions: First, the easy ones. Credit union growth in all key areas will be unprecedented in 2003. Loan portfolios will continue to look more like the old savings and loans with a record high percentage of loaned out dollars earmarked for mortgages. Member business loans will also greatly expand. Total assets will skyrocket, approaching $600 billion as credit unions begin to find innovative methods to serve the millions of potential members they have recently brought into the fold. The total number of members in credit unions will reach close to 85 million by the end of 2003. The billionaires club will hit 77, up from 65. The total number of credit unions will plummet by over 400. The drop will be caused by the continued disappearance of small credit unions, but also by a big increase in CU mergers. At least one merger will be substantial. By year end, the majority of assets and members will be concentrated in only 10% of credit unions. Although popular NCUA Chairman Dennis Dollar's term on the Board officially expires in April, he will be around most of the year. With Dollar, a known quantity is in charge. NCUA will be one less thing for the Bush Administration to worry about on its growing to do list. When Dollar finally does step down, he will not disappear from the credit union scene as have his predecessors. The current flap involving Senator Trent Lott, Dollar's sponsor, bears watching in connection with Dollar's future plans. Meanwhile, Access Across America, RegFlex, incidental powers, and other Dollar initiatives will kick in big time in 2003. As for the other two NCUA Board Members, 2003 will look a lot like 2002 as far as what they say and how they vote. At least four more credit unions will convert to thrift charters. The number of FCUs seeking more liberal state charters will increase significantly. The number of credit unions switching to community charters and changing names in the process will also increase substantiality. Those credit unions will make major increases in their marketing budgets. At least four more federally insured, state chartered credit unions will give NCUA leadership heartburn by switching to private insurance. During the year, at least one mainstream media outlet will decide the switch to private insurance is worthy of a major scare story. Credit union PR types won't handle the fallout very well. Bankruptcy reform supporters will go full bore once again to get legislation on the books. Despite waning credit union grassroots support, CUNA and NAFCU will again make it their top priority. This will anger many credit union loyalists who see greater needs. After even more political capital is expended, bankruptcy reform will again fail. Corporates have never been in the news as much as they were in 2002. That coverage will pale in comparison to the headlines they will generate in 2003. Why? Because this will be the year that the once cooperative corporates declare, albeit unspoken, open warfare on each other as they seek new turf on which to peddle a growing array of state-of-the-art products and services to natural person credit unions. The new breed of corporate leadership will re-define the ground rules. This new aggressiveness will result in a substantial increase in advertising and promotional dollars by all but a few corporates. At least three more corporates will disappear via the merger route in 2003. One corporate will change its CEO rather abruptly. Almost no one will buy into the explanation given. Watch for a very well-known national credit union leader to unexpectedly step down before 2003 winds down catching even his closest colleagues by surprise. Reasons given for his departure will be pure spin. As usual, there will also be two to three league CEO replacements, and a dozen or more large credit union CEO changes, not all due to retirement. Banking lobbyists will make more noise than usual in 2003 increasing the volume and nastiness of their anti-credit union rhetoric because of the so-called runaway growth and expansion of credit unions. The NCUA Board will pass new FOM initiatives currently out for comment by a two to one vote. A major legal offensive will be launched by banking trade groups. It will consume tons of money and other resources on both sides of the battlefield. It will fail miserably. The banking industry will be severely scolded by politicians who will increase their support of credit unions in 2003. To almost no one's surprise, credit union monetary and grassroots support of politicians will also increase substantially in 2003. Finally, these predictions: trusts will become a major new growth area for credit unions with national providers coming on strong; there will be substantial growth and consolidation in no-surcharge CU ATM networks; the results of both the GAO study of credit unions and CUNA's low-income survey will be greeted with giant yawns; and the number of banks switching to S-Corp charters will nearly double. And these: at least two more of the limited number of single sponsor credit unions remaining will change names and seek members outside of their original sponsor; credit union volunteers will attempt to organize a national effort to help volunteers get more representation on national boards but it will fail; renewed privacy initiatives will consume money and effort and go nowhere; the number of high-profile national alliances will at least double; and after more nose bleeds, credit unions in Utah will successfully beat back the bankers full frontal attack. This year I have far more predictions to make than space to list them. Suffice it to say that my safest prediction of all is that 2003 will be an absolutely fabulous year for credit unions. Happy New Year! Comments? Call 1-800-345-9936, Ext. 15, or Fax 561-683-8514, or E-mail [email protected].